Noviembre 03, 2005
Goni Got "Served" in Washington DC
Surreal would be a fairly descriptive word for Tuesday evening’s events. It wasn’t so much seeing a former Bolivian President live and in color, speak so frankly about Bolivia and its current state of affairs that seemed unusual, but rather it was the odd, and possibly historic occurrences throughout the night.
Invited by a friend to the event hosted by the organization Princeton in Latin America where Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada was on hand in Washington, DC to speak about the current state of South America. Quite rarely does “Goni” appear in public as he still remains very much on the minds of Bolivians for some unanswered questions.
His talk took a back seat to the pre-game festivities. I found a place near the front giving me time to come up with some sort of heavy-duty question (I failed, but more on that later). Near the back of the room, a young man with a digital camera would flash repeated pictures of Goni, as another man handed him a brown envelope. Piecing together the turn of events was difficult from my vantage point, but I would learn later what had transpired.
Apparently he was served with legal papers. From a Press Release from those involved with this event:
November 1, 2005, Washington, DC – Former Bolivian president, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada (1991-1997, 2002-2003) was served with legal documents today by U.S. citizens acting on behalf of Bolivian human rights organizations. Mr. Sanchez de Lozada is being summoned to testify in an investigation undertaken by the Bolivian Office of the Attorney General where he is accused of the wrongful deaths, injuries, illegal imprisonment and other crimes against Bolivian citizens.
Goni attempted to remove himself from the situation as all the parties involved were escorted from the event. The ex-President tried to laugh it off, but when I glanced over my shoulder, I saw him standing alone in the hallway, he appeared visibly shaken and disturbed at the surprise.
After all of that was out of the way, Goni’s 30 minute talk would begin. The title of his speech was “Quo Vadis South America,” although it ended up concentrating heavily on the events in Bolivia. It’s hard to say whether he shuffled things up and purposely focused on Bolivia, and in a way, to defend himself because of the incident prior to the speech. He didn't appear to be operating off of notes. Those in attendance all had varying degrees of knowledge and interest in Bolivian politics. There were some officials from the Bolivian embassy present, as well as some students who spent time in the country.
The main problem in South America, and especially Bolivia, in Goni’s eyes was the unholy alliance between drug money and radical social movements. He didn’t hesitate to specifically mention Evo Morales as a beneficiary of coca money. He made it clear that Evo wasn’t involved in the shipping, Goni indicated that Evo was a recipient of tax revenue from coca, which helps funds the MAS political machine. There was hardly a mention of Hugo Chavez, in regards to funds for Bolivia. However, it may be logical to think that Evo has some idea of what’s going on in the Chapare area, but probably is not directly involved with illegal activities. If he was involved directly, with so many enemies within the country, surely someone somewhere could make a link if he wanted to, but so far there has been no proof. Yet, this was the first time I have heard of this coca tax.
He also referred to his resignation, which he said was the result of a coup.
Following the speech, the room was opened up for questions, which would be taken three at a time. One non-Bolivian woman who said she lives in Santa Cruz asked what Goni thought would happen if Evo became President. Darn, that was essentially my question. Time to think of another.
For the next question, a young lady in front of me was eager to ask the President a question. She indicated that she studied at the Universidad Mayor de San Andres and after that she exploded. Increasingly her voice became louder and louder as she asked Goni to explain his actions regarding the events in Warisata and demanded to know how Goni could live with impunity in the United States. As she was being escorted out, everyone in the room could hear her voice fade out as she was led down the staircase. As she left the room, she stated that everyone in the room had "blood on their hands".
The first question was overshadowed by the second question. Goni defended himself specifically in regards to the Warisata issue where he simply said that the convoy of foreign and Bolivian tourists who were trying to escape was ambushed. There were casualties on both sides.
Usually in Q&A sessions like this, there is usually room for a handful of questions. I wanted to get my chance, so I raised my hand knowing full well that my first question had been asked. Uh oh, what would I say?
Immediately my mind reverted back to the use of the word “coup”, so I asked what he though his Vice-President Carlos Mesa’s role in his resignation. His answer was extremely vague, but insinuated that he must have known something, but ended with saying he has no comment on the issue. Pretty weak question if I would say so myself. I would have rather ask about the effects of a MAS presidency.
No, I don’t think Goni is a monster. No, I don’t think he should be charged with genocide. Should he have to answer or testify about his role and his knowledge about the events in October 2003? Of course. However, I know he won’t get a fair trial in Bolivia under the current circumstances. People are already judging him guilty before the facts are verified.
A comment in the Democracy Center’s blog from Javier F. regarding this very issue summed it up:
Most of us would agree that the suspect should be brought to justice and then labeled criminal once he/she has been proven guilty.
If you read previous entries in this Blog, you will find Jim playing the role of judge already …”People from the US ought to care that our government is harboring an international criminal.”* …look at the title “The president who killed…” …can clearly show that judicial Jim already put Goni in Jail.
The legal document only asks Goni to come and testify, but many are reading into the matter as if Goni has already been proven guilty and must serve his jail time. In the minds of some, any verdict other than a guilty is insufficient. It is a lose-lose situation. If it is found that other lower ranked officials ordered to use live rounds on protestors, and Goni is off the hook, in many minds, justice would not have been done.
Take a look at the website Juicio a Goni, Ya!, which contains a front page image which imagines Goni and Carlos Sanchez Berzain behind bars. That sums up the opinion on some that are pre-judging the case. As I said before, Goni should have to answer about his knowledge and his role in all of the events of October 2003.
Afterwards I asked for a picture with him. When I was talking with him, he didn’t seem very interested, probably because I was babbling about something uninteresting. But, in a way, I felt sorry for him. Rarely making public appearances, he must be on edge whenever someone walks up to him. It could go either way. Someone might be coming up to hug him or to berate him. Definitely, the issues have every right to be addressed. The manner in which the very vocal young lady went about to prove her point, really had no place in an event like that.
However, someone did their homework and strategized well finding a time to serve Goni the papers. The Los Tiempos correspondent in the United States picked up on the story and it appeared in this morning’s Cochabamba edition.
Posted by eduardo at 08:50 AM | Comments (6)
Abril 11, 2005
Prefect Elections - August 12
The Bolivian Electoral Court has confirmed that the next round of elections are scheduled for August 12. This first step towards more local government participation will be another test of the strength of the citizens' groups and political parties. These should be interesting to gauge progress from the various political parties and to find out whether the citizens' groups have more influence outside of their municipalities.
Will Evo's MAS party fall on its face after its policy of blockades and blackmail caused a lot of disfavor in the cities? Now that the elections will be department-wide, the rural progress and support will likely be squashed by the disdain in the cities. Will Evo be able to claim to be the number one political force in the country? Or will it be the continued emergence of citizens' groups and possible alliances that become this new force?
El Alto's Mayor Jose Luis Paredes (PP) has confirmed that they will participate in the Department of La Paz's elections and possibly even in Oruro and Potosi. The popular La Paz Mayor Juan del Granado (MSM) will also branch out.
The national head of the Movimiento Sin Miedo and La Paz Mayor said that his party will participate in the prefect elections and did not rule out presenting candidates in the nine departments, with possible alliances with the citizens' groups or with political parties that identify themselves with the transformation of the left, but "never with the traditional parties."
These alliances could be key as there has not been any real change in the way politics and elections are carried out. In the end, no one candidate is likely to achieve the 50% + 1 to win outright. As we have seen at the national and municipal levels, backdoor wheeling and dealing and the exchange of patronage will likely be the norm, which would a shame. These elections should have been a clear victory for democracy and local autonomy, but as it has been all along, it's about the battle and struggle for power and how that power is gained.
Posted by eduardo at 01:46 PM | Comments (1)
Febrero 10, 2005
It Worked
The pressures from the Civic Committee in Santa Cruz convinced Ricardo Paz to resign his post as coordinator of the Unidad de Coordinación de la Asamblea Constituyente.
From El Deber:
ED: ¿Hubo presiones para que usted deje el cargo de coordinador de la Unidad de Coordinación de la Asamblea Constituyente?
RP: La resistencia en los últimos días, especialmente de parte del Comité pro Santa Cruz, hace que yo dé un paso al costado, no quiero ser un pretexto para que este proceso no se realice. Espero que ésta mi salida, si es que resultaba ser un problema, lo viabilice, sin que le presenten más cortapisas.
So basically Paz resigned so he wouldn't be used as an excuse in order to derail the process. Good for him, as he clearly knows the Constituent Assembly is not about him or his position.
Posted by eduardo at 12:01 AM | Comments (0)
Febrero 09, 2005
Let's Get the Constituent Assembly Rolling
As one of the five priorities set by Carlos Mesa after the latest political crisis, the Constituent Assembly is gathering steam. There are many things to decide long before the Assembly convenes to rewrite the Constitution, including timeframe, number of delegates, and the timing of the Referendum on autonomies.
However, any move made by the President or the Unidad de Coordinación para la Asamblea Constituyente (UCAC), a special commission headed by delegate Ricardo Paz, will sure to draw a watchful eye.
This is a monumental task that requires concessions from both the left and the right, even though each side believes their ideas are the only ones that count. Paz will work closely with Senator Carlos Sandy (MAS - Oruro), head of the Comisión Especial de Congeso (CECAC), with the objective of "opening a the most democratic and participative process in the republican history of the country: the Constituent Assembly."
Easier said than done.
The leaders of the Civic Committees in Santa Cruz are already crying foul. They've apparently found a new public enemy no. 1 in Paz, who they accuse of being a "anti-Cruceño manipulator"
Pointing to a visit by Paz to San Julian, a small town in the Santa Cruz Department. The newspaper El Nuevo Dia decided to interpret Paz's words for him.
Ricardo Paz Ballivián, coordinador para la Asamblea Constituyente y hombre de confianza de Carlos Mesa, fue duramente criticado por la dirigencia cívica y un analista cruceño. Ambos consideraron que su actuación en el desbloqueo de San Julián sólo perjudicará las negociaciones entre Santa Cruz y el Gobierno. Paz felicitó a los campesinos por el bloqueo de tres días “en defensa de la democracia”,
Notice how the newspaper managed only to quote "in defense of democracy" and not the words where Paz supposedly congratulated the campesinos for blockading the road. Even in other news sources, there was no sign of the exact quote. Most likely Paz congratulated the campesinos for standing up for autonomies within the context of a new Constitution, and not through a populist mega-propaganda-fueled party that took place last month.
The commission is studying proposals regarding the number of delegates to the Assembly. Based on Census numbers from 2001, the Department with the highest population (because it has two of the top four cities in terms of population) is La Paz, with the highest number of delegates, followed by Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. Their proposal will sure to draw criticisms from minority groups, who may have more economic power but clearly do not have the comparable numbers.
Posted by eduardo at 12:10 PM | Comments (0)
Febrero 04, 2005
Mesa Shakes Up Cabinet
As expected, President Carlos Mesa has reshaped his cabinet for the third time since assuming the Presidency. Also, as expected, new cabinet members represent sectors of the country that have opposed Mesa or recently came out in public support for him.
For example, Walter Kreidler, who has strong ties to the Santa Cruz businessmen, has been named Minister of Economic Development.
Also, individuals closely tied with members of the bancada patriótica and newly elected mayors were given Cabinet positions.
La bancada patriótica que es afín al Gobierno tiene tres representantes en el Ejecutivo: el ministro de Servicios y Obras Públicas, René Gómez García; el de Asuntos Campesinos y Agropecuarios, Víctor Gabriel Barrios; y el de Asuntos Indígenas, Pedro Ticona. Barrios es hijo del senador emebelista Franz Barrios; y Ticona responde a la corriente de Filemón Escóbar (MAS).
Los alcaldes, que apoyaron a Mesa mientras duró el conflicto con Santa Cruz, también tienen presencia en la nueva estructura. El ministro de Minería y Metalurgia (cartera creada), Jorge Espinoza, fue propuesto por el burgomaestre potosino, René Joaquino.
All this is an effort to increase backing in Congress, something he had not received in his 1+ year in office. Of the 16 cabinet positions (<--click to see graphic), only 7 were "ratificado" and remained in their positions.
Posted by eduardo at 10:57 PM | Comments (1)
Enero 31, 2005
René Joaquin, Potosí Mayor
Last month, El Deber published a nice profile piece about the recently elected Potosí mayor. René Joaquino, the “phenomenon” that pulled in 58% of the vote, is considered one of the up-and-coming mayors in the country and is making a name for himself on the national scene. His citizens' group Alianza Social (AS) currently has ten of the eleven council seats in Potosi. Joaquino was a former member of Nueva Fuerza Republicana (NFR), but broke ranks as did countless others.
Potosí maneja ahora dos veces más dinero que en las gestiones anteriores. Un gran porcentaje llega de programas de cooperación. Aspira a convertir a Potosí en un municipio modelo de Bolivia. Ha reducido la contaminación de las minas. Exige sacrificio y puntualidad a los 471 empleados ediles. Fue portero, albañil y lamparero
Due to his past manual labor professions, many Potosinos readily identify with him. Sometimes he has been very visible helping unload bags of cement or other construction materials at public works sites. However, he is also a lawyer, which has helped in future aspirations.
Soñaba con ser Presidente de Bolivia. "René Joaquino, futuro Presidente", firmaba en las notas que enviaba a sus compañeros. Ellos bromeaban, pero, en el fondo, él no. Claro, quién iba a tomar en serio a un pastor de ovejas y luego lamparero en las minas que trabajaba su tío en Chorolque.
Potosi has been the birthplace of two Bolivian Presidents, Jose Maria Linares Lizarazu and Gregorio Pacheco Leyes.
La ejecución eficiente de las obras hizo que la cooperación ofrezca su ayuda. Cada fin de semana, el municipio recibía embajadores de varios países, interesados en visitar la legendaria ciudad y ver de cerca el fenómeno Joaquino. Casi la mitad de los Bs 130 millones que se administran cada año vienen de recursos externos. Japón, Dinamarca, España, Cuba y otros programas han entregado créditos a la Alcaldía por casi Bs 61 millones.
Posted by eduardo at 04:51 PM | Comments (1)
Diciembre 29, 2004
Foot in the Door Technique?
Last Thursday, the Bolivian Foreign Minister announced that Bolivia will no longer seek access to the sea through multi-lateral means. You may remember President Carlos Mesa's obsession with bringing up the subject at every international forum, conference, and at the United Nations. Per the request of Chilean President Ricardo Lagos, which Mesa previously discounted, these discussions will take place on a bi-lateral basis. Bolivia took one step towards Chile, and now Mesa is counting on Lagos to reciprocate with the same.
Posted by eduardo at 03:46 PM | Comments (1)
Diciembre 28, 2004
Lema Quits City Council
In a unexpected turn of events, MAS candidate for the Cochabamba mayorship, Gonzalo Lema resigned his position and is formally leaving MAS.
After pledging to respect the top vote getter, he was criticized by MAS leader Evo Morales. Lema, as the 2nd place vote getter, legally could have sought the mayor chair. Then, he clarified that respecting and supporting Chaly Terceros (the top vote getter) is different than providing him with the sufficient votes to be mayor. As a result, Terceros made an alliance with UCS candidate Edwin Mallon. It is unclear what was exchanged in order for this alliance to happen.
Lema was formally censured by MAS in a meeting last Saturday. All of this left the famous national novelist very bitter.
"No puedo creer que sea algo utópico el contar con un Concejo libre de camarillas y en alianzas basadas en un mero interés político."
Whether or not politics will be in Lema's future is still unknown. It's hard to say whether Lema received less votes because of his association with MAS or more votes because of that party affiliation. I am guessing that he received all the votes associated with MAS no matter who the candidate was, although I have heard many people from Cochabamba say that they like Lema, but would never vote for MAS.
Posted by eduardo at 11:37 AM | Comments (0)
Diciembre 21, 2004
Firestarter
The pressure on Bolivia to sign a treaty with the United States granting immunity to American soldiers is not sitting well with Evo Morales:
"Aprobar (ese tratado por el que presiona Washington) es como decir que nosotros somos como animalitos, que nos matan nomás”, alegó Morales luego de advertir: “Si es necesario hay que incendiar el Congreso, aunque nos digan que estamos atentando contra la democracia”
It's obvious that behind the scenes, American officials are trying to encourage Bolivian lawmakers to sign the treaty. Morales has even hinted that some lawmakers have accepted cash payments in exchange for their vote.
Clearly, it is in Bolivia's soverign right to seek justice for any American soldier who has been found to commit human rights abuses in Bolivia. The United States, in theory, should not have anything to worry about if their soldiers are trained and trustworthy. However, if the Bolivian form of justice looks to find someone guilty before a trial, much less an investigation, then how can a Bolivian or another nationality expect to receive fair treatment (a'la Goni's "Trial").
Naturally, the American embassy denies that any foreign aid is dependent on the signing of this treaty. Perhaps, the Bolivian lawmakers should call their bluff.
Posted by eduardo at 04:02 PM | Comments (0)
Bolivia to Support Mexican Candidate
The spokesperson for President Carlos Mesa announced that Bolivia will support Mexico's Luis Ernesto Derbez to head up the OAS.
Last week Chile officially solicited Bolivia's support for its own candidate. However, Jose Galindo, Mesa's spokesperson said, "for obvious historical reasons" that they cannot support the Chilean candidate.
The Bolivia-Chile sea issue has taken a backseat to the recent municipal elections and the pending Hydrocarbons Law. Neither side will budge on this issue, but in order for some progress to be made, one side will have to show a sign of good faith. It's not known what was Chilean candidate Jose Miguel Insulza's position was on the sea issue, but it appears that Bolivia did not want to take the risk of never having the issue be addressed at the OAS with a Chilean at the top post.
Posted by eduardo at 03:43 PM | Comments (0)
Diciembre 18, 2004
Evo: "Un Cadáver Político Como Tuto Quiroga"
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, desperate to make a name for himself after his failed project "Roberto Fernandez for Mayor of Santa Cruz", wrote a letter to Venezuela President Hugo Chavez. One of the leading candidates for the Presidency in 2007, Tuto wanted to send a message to Chavez and gain some publicity.
This letter told Chavez to not involve himself in Bolivian politics.
Chavez' close friend, Evo Morales, came to Chavez' defense. In typical Evo fashion, he used ridiculous accusations including that Tuto was involved in the failed coup in Venezuela.
Morales:
"Ese apoyo que tiene ahora está siendo condenado de manera cobarde y cínicamente, pues un cadáver político como Tuto Quiroga, después de errores y muertes dejados durante su gobierno de apenas un año, no puede pretender dar clases de dignidad".
As Morales continues to make statements like these, he turns off more voters. The growing Bolivian middle class will only look at the messenger, and not the message. Behind that message are genuine grievances and serious social and economic problems that are not represented. All of the advances that Evo and MAS have made in the past three years will be for naught.
Posted by eduardo at 05:02 PM | Comments (2)
Diciembre 14, 2004
Not So Fast
When MAS candidate Gonzalo Lema announced that he would “support” the first-place candidate in the Cochabamba mayor race (even if it meant finishing far below 50%), Evo Morales probably spit out his coffee in disgust. However, Evo is claiming that he understood support, as being accepting of the inevitable coalition of the first place finisher Chaly Terceros (CIU) and another political party. Little did he know, supposedly, that Lema assumed that support meant giving votes to Chaly.
Now Evo has stepped in saying that there is no way the MAS councilmembers would give their vote to Terceros. After all, he argues, Terceros was a big part of NFR, the ruling party in Cochabamba for the past ten years and one notorious for corruption.
This opens the door for the third and fourth place finishers, with one councilmember apiece (UCS and NFR), to join the ruling coalition. All it would take is one vote to put Terceros’ CIU over the top to assume the mayorship.
Technicially Lema, as the 2nd place finisher with approximately 2% difference, is eligible to become mayor. However, it would take the support from both UCS and NFR to put him over the 6 votes needed. This scenario is far-fetched because the two parties would only give them their votes in exchange for some patronage.
Why is Evo suddenly making waves after a week or more of saying nothing? Perhaps he finally realized that the MAS took none of the 4 urban major cities, or none of the other Department capitals. Even though it is estimated that he improved a bit on his 21% total vote in the 2002 Presidential elections, it is foolish to think all that support for the 327 MAS candidates translates to support for him. Championing oneself as the major political force in the country takes more than a couple of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishes.
Yet, part of the appeal of Sr. Lema was that he was an invited member of the MAS party. A lot of people respected Lema and felt that he could be independent from MAS nationally. There were promises that Evo would take a hands-off approach in Cochabamba, but now clearly he has both hands clearly metidas in the situation.
It is still inevitable that Terceros will become Cochabamba mayor, although the possibility now exists that there will be some sort of agreement with UCS or NFR in exchange for some nice government jobs.
Posted by eduardo at 09:06 AM | Comments (0)
Diciembre 10, 2004
Santa Cruz Update
Oscar Vargas (MUP) officially gave his votes to 2nd place finisher, Percy Fernandez. In exchange, reportedly Vargas' group receives half the local government jobs and will become mayor for the last two of the five year term.
Posted by eduardo at 06:25 AM | Comments (5)
Diciembre 09, 2004
A Look at Santa Cruz
When I asked my friend in Santa Cruz, which mayoral candidate was aligned the most with the Comite Civico, she told me Oscar Vargas (MUP). I admit I don’t know as much about Santa Cruz politics, than I do about Cochabamba. However, in the past year I have become interested in the legitimate autonomy issue and how the populist Cruceño (not Camba) groups, mainly the Comite Civico, have manipulated the issue to serve their future interests. Days after the municipal elections, hypocrisy is taking shape revealing true interests and how in the end, they are centralists at heart.
The virtual three-way tie with no candidate passing the 23% mark, has opened up a Pandora’s box in Santa Cruz. According to the law, either of the two top vote-getters can become mayor, only with the support and votes from the other elected councilmembers. This precisely means, either first place finisher Roberto Fernandez (AXX1) or 2nd – place Percy Fernandez (FAJT) can become mayor, with a little help from Vargas.
Maybe the respective “citizen groups”, which are represented by the top three finishers, (comprised of ex-political party members), should have taken courses in negotiations. As a result, huge negotiating teams have been assembled to hash out scenarios where Vargas could support Roberto. Vargas could possibly support Percy, but not the other way around. Percy can also support Roberto, and vice-versa (not very likely).
So what’s at the center of these negotiations? Naturally everyone involved is denying that “pegas” (government jobs) are at the heart of the matter. Publicly, everyone is claiming that government plans and philosophies are what these politicians are deeply concerned about.
The leader of the MUP (Oscar’s group) is Ivo Kuljis, a powerful Cruceño businessman, who has a lengthy political resume, which includes a stint as Presidential candidate in 1997 with UCS and as Veep in 2002 under Manfred Reyes Villa and NFR. He is also a part of the Comite Civico. Kuljis desperately wants in the governing coalition. Jumping from party to party and now to a citizens' group shows this man's true colors.
Vargas seems to be in the driver’s seat as he holds potential to put either Percy or Roberto over the magical number of votes. However, Percy may ask for less government jobs in comparison to Oscar. It’s important to be greedy, but not too greedy or else someone else may get the jobs. Yet, one should hold out for all that they can. Bluffs, offers, counteroffers are all part of the dirty game called politics.
In theory, true champions of autonomies would be aghast at a select few individuals at the bargaining table with public sector jobs as gambling chips. Yet, Kuljis and Vargas, who have brought the topic of autonomy into play and are behind the regional autonomy banner, are benefiting from their own centralist roles. The opposite of centralism is decentralization, where this type of nepotism and patronage is reduced or eliminated as much as possible. The only way Oscar Vargas or Percy Fernandez would give votes to Roberto Fernandez in exchange for government jobs or influence, which shows true hypocrisy.
Not to be discounted is the potential springboard to the national scene as part of the coalition. Both Roberto and Oscar are relatively young, in comparison to the dinosaurs of Bolivian politics, and both want to be part of discussions for President.
This type of thing isn’t restricted to Santa Cruz. The same thing would be happening in La Paz, El Alto and Cochabamba if the winner wouldn’t have received as high of percentage. In Cochabamba, MAS candidate pledged to support the top vote-getter regardless.
Sidebar: From ProDemos The 2nd largest city in Santa Cruz Department, Montero had broad support for MAS.
Montero es uno de los municipios principales del departamento de Santa Cruz. Allí, el postulante del MAS, Edwin Tupa Tupa, logró más de 5500 votos de los 25.364 válidos, venciendo al candidato Gerardo Rosado quien tuvo hasta que abandonar su militancia al Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR) y presentarse con una agrupación ciudadana: Acción e Integración (AI).
Even in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, the MAS candidate "Chato" Peredo finished in a respectable 4th place. The type of claims that the regional elite make, insisting that they represent the entire "media luna" continue to be discredited.
Posted by eduardo at 04:13 PM | Comments (1)
Diciembre 07, 2004
More Election Analysis
Daniel's monthly post in his Kaiki blog (although I wish he would write more often) talks a bit about voter turnout, among other things.
- Un alto nivel de ausentismo a nivel nacional(se habla de un 39%), no quiero interpretar esto pero no es nada bueno, máxime considerando que se amenazó con depurar de las listas de la Corte Nacional Electoral a quienes no votaran.
Last July's Referendum hit 60% participation and the 1999 Municipal Elections reached 60%. Source: CNE This year's elections only seemed to produce a 1% increase. Even with the new participation rules, voter participation stayed at nearly the same level on a national scale.
Posted by eduardo at 06:31 PM | Comments (1)
Diciembre 06, 2004
Consolation Prize
MAS candidate and Barrio Flores favorite, Gonzalo Lema said he will respect the majority candidate. This means that when the final tallies are announced and if CU candidate Gonzalo Terceros is still leading (regardless of how little the difference), Lema's councilmembers will cast their vote for Terceros.
What this means is that the notorious behind-the-scenes coalition wheeling and dealing may not happen. This saves Terceros from possibly having to align himself with his ex-party NFR.
However, Lema could shock everyone and form an alliance with NFR and UCS, springing MAS to its first-ever mayorship of one of the 4 major cities. Yet, it probably serves MAS' best interest to remain in the opposition, with a strong 4 councilmembers of a possible 11.
These developments could keep NFR out of la Alcaldia, for the first time in ten years, which would be a great thing for Cochabamba (hence, the consolation prize).
Cochabamba Notes:
Check out Los Tiempos' (Cochabamba newspaper) front page this morning. Possibly the worst front page ever, with Terceros pulling off a Michael Jackson dance move.
Vote dispersal? You betcha. The bottom nine candidates only totaled 8.4% of the total votes. The difference between Terceros and Lema is 2.7% If Bolivia's system called for a second round run-off, would the support from the minor candidates push a greater mandate for one of the top two?
Cochabamba's Corte Nacional Electoral page exists, but is not yet functioning. Hopefully this site will break down the vote according to districts and neighborhoods.
These are the elected councilmembers: Gonzalo Terceros (CIU),(Suplente: Miriam Cardona de Tomisic), Roberto Requena (CIU),Tatiana Rojas (CIU), Víctor Calderón (CIU), Ana Paulina Pinto (CIU), Gonzalo Lema (MAS), Oscar Coca (MAS), Clemencia Orellana (MAS), Javier Cremer (MAS), Jhonny Antezana (NFR),Edwin Mallón (UCS)
Posted by eduardo at 07:27 PM | Comments (3)
Diciembre 05, 2004
Troubling
If the exit polls numbers hold up in Cochabamba, we can be seeing a CU/NFR coalition. Terceros' four seats plus NFR's two seats could be all that is needed to create a majority (11 seats). The wild card will be if Terceros wants nothing to do with NFR since he was involuntarily removed as mayor by Manfred Reyes Villa.
Posted by eduardo at 05:58 PM | Comments (0)
Exit Polls Galore
According to exit polls conducted by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado and some television stations, the following candidates are leading with the following percentages (via Bolivia.com):
Cochabamba: Gonzalo Terceros (CU) 31%, Gonzalo Lema (MAS) 29%, Jhonny Antezana (NFR) 12% (AO y M)
El Alto: Jose Luis Paredes (PP) 60%, Wilson Soria (MAS) 14%, Roberto de la Cruz (M17) 9% (Red ATB)
La Paz: Juan del Granado (MSM) 52%, Pablo Ramos (MAS) 14% (AO y M)
No word on Santa Cruz
However, these are only EXIT POLLS, and we all know how misleading these can be. Other exit polls conducted by the television stations Red Unitel and Red UNO are releasing very different figures, such as Unitel only predicting 33% for del Granado.
In El Alto, Roberto de la Cruz of COR fame has announced that he has won 6 seats on the city council translating to more than 50% of the vote (11 seats on El Alto's city council). This claim is highly unlikely even if the final results deviate far from the predicted 9%
Posted by eduardo at 05:44 PM | Comments (1)
Barrio Flores Endorsement
Like any other Bolivian, Cochabambinos are fiercely proud of their city. They point out the near-perfect climate and how modern the city has become. “La Ciudad Jardin” is showcased in its finely manicured plazuelas and the iconic “El Prado”. Most recently the new public works projects of the Recoleta Bridge and the Muyurina Overpass are further proof that Cochabamba is progressing.
That is what the ruling party Nueva Fuerza Republicana (NFR) has been using as their argument for reelection. These visible displays of advancement were needed to better the city and the bridges needed to suppress traffic headaches, but clearly Cochabamba faces more important needs such as potable water, sewer systems, and more efficiency in the public administration.
Mammoth projects such as the Overpass cost an estimated 4 million dollars. No one on the street would be able to give you a rough guess as to how much money was needed to complete the project. There have been insinuations that these large projects are opportunities for the government to receive kickbacks from builders who overcharge.
Not to mention that in the ten years since NFR took power, they have accumulated 60 million dollars in debt. In those ten years, 6 different mayors held office, some removed personally by NFR chief Manfred Reyes Villa.
In politics, I hate having to resort to the “Anybody But….” vote. Although in this case, it plays a part in having to find alternative choices. One of the favorites “Chaly” Terceros of citizen group Ciudadanos Unidos (CU) is a former mayor of Cochabamba in the same NFR. Some are afraid that he is using the new citizen group rule to eventually realign himself with NFR, if the vote obligates for coalition-building.
Today’s Cochabmaba requires a mayor to understand the growing urban problems, particularly in the Zona Sud. Thinking critically often requires the ability to be imaginative and creative. These skills are held by people from all walks of life. No one has ever accused a fiction novelist of being unimaginative.
That is why one of the reasons I support Gonzalo Lema for mayor of Cochabamba. An aunt told me that Lema would never make a good politician, because government requires more practicality and for he or she to be a “professional” i.e. economist. Although many do not know that he has recent experience as a representative on the Corte Nacional Electoral, an important public service position.
Lema was invited by Evo Morales to be the candidate of the Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS). Even though he is not a registered party member, rather an invited member, that would be appealing to some. I am not a MAS party member, nor a MAS sympathizer on a national level. I frequently disagree with Evo Morales and am troubled with his political style. However, I feel that on a local level, MAS deserves the opportunity to practice what it preaches. On a local level, the issue of coca eradication, Hydrocarbons law or the Chile sea issue rarely applies in local politics.
If MAS comes to power, it would ben an excellent opportunity to push the real problems of the city to the forefront. Water issues and issues facing the poor are essentially what would be driving a Lema administration, because he would have been elected largely by the vote of these poorer parts of the city.
On a Lema MAS brochure, there was a picture of Evo Morales, with this quote (paraphrasing): “If elected, Mayor Lema will never have to answer to MAS or Evo Morales, and would only have to answer to the city and its people.”
This promised hands-off approach and removal of Evo Morales from a Lema mayorship is imperative for Lema to attract the middle-class vote, who often hold distaste for Morales' overbearing and ego-driven foray into national politics. Lema's fresh approach to city politics and a need to remove any related NFR official as far away as possible from the Alcaldia (removing the possibility of including NFR in a governing coalition), makes Lema an interesting choice for mayor of Cochabamba.
(Note: I don't claim to have any sort of influence over today's elections. I just wanted to try and articulate why I support Lema).
Posted by eduardo at 12:06 PM | Comments (0)
What To Look For
Anything can happen in today’s municipal elections. Reports of fraudulent ballots have been making rounds in Santa Cruz. I’m restricted to news from online newspapers, which have been accused of favoritism towards certain candidates. Even informal polling of Bolivians I have spoken with through IM found that many are still undecided. This indecision and questionable polling could change the results that were predicted.
Evo Morales’ MAS party is looking to make a strong showing in rural areas, although his candidate in Cochabamba could come in first. Even though many admire Gonzalo Lema and think he would be an honest mayor, many won’t vote for him because of the relationship with Evo. MAS, I believe, is the only political party to participate in all 327 municipalities.
It will also be important to see whether the traditional political parties maintain the vote of party loyalists. So many new citizen’s groups have formed, comprised of party members, and most are relying on their fellow party members for their vote. This is the crossroads for MNR, MIR and NFR, whether they remain relevant in local and national politics.
There are indications that the candidates in El Alto and La Paz, Pepe Lucho Paredes and Juan del Granado, respectively, may win outright (50% + 1 of the vote). Both are the incumbent mayors. Paredes, ex-MIR formed his own citizen’s groups and del Granado is the head of La Paz-based party Movimiento Sin Miedo (MSM).
In the other two major cities (Santa Cruz and Cochabamba), the top 3-4 favorites may have to contend with vote dispersal, thus obligating the new city council to elect the mayor. We may not know the results for some time. Some candidates have proposed that all those running should honor the popular vote and ensure that the top vote-getter should be made mayor, even if he/she received 20-something percent. Others have argued that this is anti-democratic.
Posted by eduardo at 11:24 AM | Comments (0)
Diciembre 02, 2004
Media Politics
As referred to in the comments section of MABB, I was concerned how the media and the polls have manipulated opinions and the subsequent coverage of the upcoming elections. A recent debate in Santa Cruz only included Roberto and Percy Fernandez (no relation). Why weren't the other candidates given the opportunity to participate? Because the polls said they weren't viable candidates a'la Ralph Nader?
Seven candidates, who have not received much press including Osvaldo Peredo, who at one time polled higher than Percy Fernandez and a mere 5% of the frontrunner, published a letter denouncing the media favoritism based on power and economic interests. It would be interesting to see how this elite-driven hold on power has played into the hands of the Comite Civico's propaganda for autonomy (that's another story, though).
Read the letter (in Spanish):
Sí a la democracia, no a la manipulación
Por primera vez en la historia democrática de nuestro municipio, estamos asistiendo a una lucha de grupos económicos y mediáticos por lograr el control de los recursos y el destino de nuestro querido pueblo.
Existen tres candidaturas financiadas por fuertes intereses económicos y grupos de poder, patrocinadas por medios de comunicación, que sin descaro alguno están manipulando a la opinión pública en la forma más siniestra y descarada posible:
1. El grupo económico Kuljis, cuyo interés es que el Banco Económico maneje la plata del pueblo, apoyado por el Canal 13 (Red Uno), tiene como candidato al ciudadano Óscar Vargas Ortiz.
2. El grupo económico Monasterio, cuyo interés es que el banco Ganadero maneje la plata del pueblo, apoyado por canal 9 (Red Unitel), tiene como candidato al ciudadano Percy Fernández Añez.
3. El grupo económico Mercado-Suazo-Quiroga, cuyo interés es que el banco Mercantil maneje la plata del pueblo, apoyado por EL DEBER, tiene como candidato al ciudadano Roberto Fernández Saucedo.
Ante esta dramática situación, en la cual se inventan encuestas y buscan desprestigiar a los adversarios, invocamos al pueblo a no dejarse engañar por las mentiras repetidas día a día en los diferentes medios al servicio de poderosos grupos económicos.
El pueblo tiene el deber de elegir este 5 de diciembre a los candidatos y candidatas que mejores propuestas y proyectos hubiesen presentado a su consideración.
Rogamos a Dios, salvar a nuestro pueblo del ataque mediático de los poderosos.
Posted by eduardo at 04:18 PM | Comments (0)
Noviembre 12, 2004
More on Autonomies
Brilliant propaganda has vaulted the elite Cruceño leaders as the voice of an entire region. Forget about their own elected representatives from the major political parties. Forget that Santa Cruz even had one of its own as a recent President (Hugo Banzer Suarez). They never shoulder the blame for a corrupt and unresponsive centralist system.
Race plays a huge part in the longstanding conflict involving the regional autonomies. For the most part, leaders like Zvonko Matkovic and Ruben Costas are European descendants, who hold no real ethnic ties to Bolivia. In a country, where it is often shameful to be perceived as member of an indigenous class, and so many young Bolivians want to be Americans or Westernized, it is more convenient to try to identify themselves with the whiter, upperclass components of Bolivian society, thus gaining more support (this does not happen only in Santa Cruz).
Having Evo Morales oppose their strategy doesn't hurt either. Equating anyone who isn't with the strike, as a member of MAS or associated with these leftist groups, works in the same way as opposition to the Gas Referendum. When the unpopular Jaime Solares and Felipe Quispe called for a boycott and violence towards voters, the pro-Referendum supporters had an easier time to mark a contrast.
Driving a wedge down the middle and dividing the country into two halves plays right into their master plan. The "pais trabajador" and the "pais bloqueador" are phrases they frequently use to contrast entire regions. But as we have seen in the last day, the "pais trabajador" has now become the "pais bloqueador" and "pais de huelga" and the "pais de medidas de presion".
As a whole, regional autonomies will be a great thing for Bolivia. Local governments have a better idea of what problems plague their communities. They can be more responsive and accountable to their constituents, because there can be closer scrutiny. However, in the manner in which the Cruceño "leaders" are portraying their claim, they are only concerned about themselves and how power can be consolidated for their benefit.
Calling a Referendum asking Bolivians (or do they only want this Referendum for Santa Cruz?) is not that simple. It is a very complex process to decentralize the many parts of governments. Thousands of new local jobs will be created in order to provide important social, health, and education services. However, in a country in a consistent state of deficit and until the gas is extracted and exported, the economy will still be in crisis mode. Where will the funds for these new levels of government come from?
As new bureaucracy is created in the different Departments, so does new opportunities for corruption. At each level of government, where the jobs are distributed to unqualified and inept party supporters in the form of "pegas", the ruling party gets more opportunities to strengthen its power and opens up new ways to benefit from public monies. Unless, a real public sector reform takes place, the new autonomies will create mini-versions of the inefficient and corrupt national centralism government that many say is hurtful.
Will the concept of Departments (there are 9 in Bolivia) still exist? How will the rural communities fit into this new system? New forms of checks and balances, including judicial and legislative, may need to be created. Again, how and from what money will this be accomplished?
These are the types of things that would need to be discussed, debated, and pondered in a Constituent Assembly (and not in a rapidly put-together Referendum ballot). A simple "yes" or "no" Referendum vote is too easy. The propaganda makes it seem so. So not everyone who opposes Sr. Costas, Sr. Matkovic and the other elite leaders, is for the outdated and broken centralist government; however, these "leaders" sure make it seem like they are.
Posted by eduardo at 03:09 PM | Comments (2)
Noviembre 03, 2004
The Strongest Political Party
In the upcoming municipal elections, no one is expecting much from the political parties. After the introduction of the new law allowing for agrupaciones ciudadanas (which basically are parties in disguise, but that’s another topic altogether) and indigenous groups to take part in these elections, many wonder whether this election process would mark the end of this group of parties or whether it would be just a bump in the road. A recent poll confirmed that the parties are not doing so hot in the four major alcaldias (La Paz, El Alto, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba), with the exception of one: el Movimiento al Socialsmo (MAS).
Even though many party leaders swear that the MAS is not a political party, it operates and functions as one. But the polling numbers indicate that there exists plenty of support. Many predicted that MAS only really had a realistic shot in Cochabamba (the Department where the party was created). With the choice of Gonzalo Lema, a famous national novelist and invited guest, many thought his broad appeal would help catapult MAS to battle for the top spot. In the four major cities, MAS has polled no lower than third in any of the alcaldias.
Surprisingly, the MAS candidate in Santa Cruz, Osvaldo Peredo is in 2nd place and in striking distance of ex-mayor Roberto Fernandez. (Fernandez had to resign the mayorship in order to run for reelection). This is the most interesting result, as Peredo is polling at 15% of the vote, in comparison to Fernandez’ 22%. In a city, supposedly hostile to Evo Morales and MAS, perhaps there are voices that are not being represented by the current political leaders and ignored by the Comite Civico and other business groups.
Another city where the MAS presented a noteworthy candidate was in El Alto. The big news was that MAS had recruited a priest, Wilson Soria, who had been a public figure during the October crisis last year. However, he is far behind from ex-mayor Jose Luis “Pepe Lucho” Paredes. In La Paz, MAS is running a distant second to ex-mayor Juan del Granado.
And in the city where MAS was expected to present its strongest showing, Cochabamba, Gonzalo Lema is in a virtual deadlocked three-way tie for first with former mayor (although not the incumbent), Gonzalo Terceros. In my opinion, their campaign so far has not been as effective as it could have been, which I will address in the future.
Even if the MAS does not turn things around and make up ground in La Paz and El Alto, where things look bleak, their 2nd place finish above 10% would guarantee them at least one concejeal (councilmember) in these major cities, thus, solidifying their rise within the democratic system. Even though some parties such a UCS in Cochabamba, MIR in La Paz, and especially MSM (many forget that they are a political party), enjoy relative success in one of the four major cities, only MAS has shown consistent and success in all 4 of Bolivia’s major cities.
Top Three Candidates in the Four Major Bolivian Cities:
La Paz
Juan del Granado (MSM) – 41%
Pablo Ramos (MAS) – 15%
Jaime Paz Pereira (MIR) – 7%
El Alto
Jose Luis Paredes (PP)* – 70%
Wilson Soria (MAS) – 10%
Roberto de la Cruz (M17)* – 2%
Santa Cruz
Roberto Fernandez (ASXX1)* – 22%
Osvaldo Peredo (MAS) – 17%
Percy Fernandez (FAJT)* -- 12%
Cochabamba
Gonzalo Terceros (CIU)* – 18%
Edwin Mallon (UCS) – 18%
Gonzalo Lema (MAS) – 16%
* agrupacion ciudadana
Posted by eduardo at 12:06 PM | Comments (1)
Octubre 25, 2004
Hot Air in Bolivia
In Uyuni, Bolivia will be host to a giant hot air balloon festival. This will be an excellent launching point to focus Bolivia´s tourism to this unique salt plain. Even LAB airlines will begin service to Uyuni.
However, the hot air that I am most concerned about is coming from Santa Cruz, where the so-called elite leaders are whining just for the sake of whining. A recent headline in the Santa Cruz daily read "La ‘media luna’ declara guerra a Mesa y veta ley de hidrocarburos" (The word "war" was actually used by Zvonko Matkovic, head of CAINCO).
President Carlos Mesa and Congress are locked in a heated debate over the new Hydrocarbons Law. Congress, with the exception of some Tarijeño Congressmembers, voted overwhelmingly for the law recommended by the Comisión Mixta de Desarrollo Económico chaired by a MAS member from Potosi. The law created by the Executive Branch of the government has been called more conservative, but will not push foreign investment away.
This law is a major part of Mesa´s plan to reactivate the economy. There are dozens of projects waiting to invest in Bolivia and its huge natural gas reserves. However, without a law, no investment can be made.
One of the major criticism of these so-called leaders, has been Mesa´s inability to focus on the economy. Mesa-this, Mesa-that, it always is easy to criticize the Executive Branch of Congress. However, Mesa´s law conforms more closely with the desires of those Departments that hold the bulk of the gas reserves. Yet, leaders of the Comite Civicos (self-proclaimed businessmen from the upper-class) never mention or criticize the Congressional representatives from their own backyards, that voted for the Committee proposal, that would, as critics say, scare away investment and push Bolivia farther into economic difficulties.
Most of the gas is located in Tarija, and in the area called El Chaco. There is a movement that is calling for a 10th Department to be created. They argue, that Tarija and Santa Cruz are too centralized and a lot of the revenues from the gas reserves will never reach the rural countryside. These areas are behind economically and in development. The money always falls into the hands of the elite and powerful. Sound familiar? Would Santa Cruz and Tarija support this region in becoming autonomous and become a separate Department? Sounds like hypocrisy to me.
These "leaders" have autonomy as their rallying cry and have claimed this topic as their own. Mesa has repeatedly said that he supports local autonomies and it something that it would benefit all of Bolivia (which is something that these "leaders" never consider), and not just this fictional "media luna", an invention of these individuals hoping to divide Bolivia. Autonomy works only when it does not just create smaller centralized powers that mirrors what happens in La Paz. Centralism is a bad thing, but centralism in Departments does not correct this mistake.
Posted by eduardo at 06:38 PM | Comments (0)
Octubre 21, 2004
Latest Poll - Cochabamba Mayor Race
Universidad Mayor de San Simón Political Science Institute:
Gonzalo Terceros (CU) - 22.7%
Gonzalo Lema (MAS) - 14.7%
None - 14.6%
Edwin Mallon (UCS) - 12%
Undecided - 11%
Jhonny Antezana (NFR) - 7%
Mallon is a well-known television personality, who hosts his own show called "Golpes de la Vida." This show exploits (in my opinion) poor people who come on air, where they cry, plead and otherwise publicly beg for financial or other material assistance. Often these rural campesinos come to the studio speaking only quechua and all receive a bag of rice as a consolation "prize." Some people call in offering to pay their medical bills or a charitable doctor offers free medical treatment, but on the whole, there ought to be a better way of doing things.
Posted by eduardo at 06:11 PM | Comments (3)
Octubre 15, 2004
Early Take on Cochabamba Race
Campaign time for the 320+ mayoral races across the country only lasts two months. Is that enough time to properly analyze the proposals and candidates? Many seem to think that all that matters in these races is name recognition.
The Unidad Nacional (UN) is banking on the name recognition and positive vibe of comedian Jenny Serrano. The citizen´s group Ciudadanos Unidos (CU) is placing its bets with former Wilstermann President and current Bolivian Fútbol League President Mauricio "Patato" Mendez. Both are running as suplentes correction:(alternates, for the lack of a better word), that is, if the lead candidates gets enough votes, then they will serve as councilmember.
Early polling indicates (although the news were not clear on who did the polling) that "Chaly" Terceros (CU) is leading the race, followed by Gonzalo Lema (MAS).
It bothers me that Terceros, who was one of the 6 mayors in 5 years held by NFR, has such a strong following. It is said that Terceros was removed as Mayor by NFR chief Manfred Reyes Villa, as in the words of my uncle, "like a dog." Many speculate that Terceros formed his own citizen´s group to jockey for position and return to NFR in a much higher and more powerful capacity. With the stronghold that NFR has had in Cochabamba, it is tough to find anyone that has not been with that party in some aspect or another. Many want to deny their association and say that they were merely an "invited guest".
I am following closely the campaigns of Gonzalo Lema (MAS), who is not a militante, a card-carrying registered member of that party. Much like the participation of current President Carlos Mesa, who was not a militante of MNR in 2002. Yet it still weighs on me, that the MAS is not following its own rise through democracy. In theory, candidates should come from within their own ranks and be nominated internally. However, in order to receive the support from the middle-class, I am sure Evo´s hand-picked candidate fits the bill of having name recognition and broader appeal.
That is where my interest in the UN´s candidate Oscar Bakir comes in. Supposedly, although I have no way of confirming this, that all of the UN´s candidates were selected through the internal nomination process. This democratic way of selecting candidates seems to be more in line with what Bolivia needs, instead of the top-down politics of the traditional parties.
Yet, I am still weary of Bakir, because of his past association with NFR.
Many of my middle-class cousins are leaning towards Lema, and they specify that they will vote for Lema, and not necessarily MAS. This line of reasoning mirrors what many did in the 2002 Presidential election, when I know of people who voted for Goni, because of Mesa, and not for MNR.
Posted by eduardo at 05:55 PM | Comments (3)
Octubre 13, 2004
Goni Trial Close
The problem with the upcoming municipal elections is that every issue will now become politicized. Political parties that have fallen out of favor are trying to recapture the illusion of being on the side of the people. One cannot blame politicians, who, by definition, base their decisions on the likelihood of being elected or re-elected.
One such issue is the "Trial of Responsibilities" of former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. Large popular sectors are pushing for this trial for his role in the civil unrest last October. Most of the Congress, including former coalition members MIR and NFR are pushing for this trial to proceed, and to also include ex-ministers Carlos Sanchez Berzain and Yerko Kukoc.
President Carlos Mesa is supporting the trial.
Other extreme left political parties and groups like MIP and COB are proposing to try the entire cabinent accusing them of "murder, genocide, human rights violations, acts against the Constitution, and civil rights abuses."
Genocide?
If and when this trial takes place, you can count on any number of defenses that will try to bring others down with them. Already one of the accused, Yerko Kukoc, who was found in possession of hundreds of thousands of Bs. from the reserved funds, is trying to use this strategy. Yesterday, he produced a receipt that accused coalition member and MIR chief Jaime Paz Zamora of receiving nearly $50,000 per month in exchange of supporting the coalition.
More names to follow.
Posted by eduardo at 02:04 PM | Comments (3)
Octubre 07, 2004
Too Many Candidates?
Everyone is talking about the candidates for municipal elections. The novedad is that agrupaciones ciudadanas and indigenous groups will be allowed to participate without the backing of political parties.
Without that backing, comes no financial support from the state. Even though many ex-political party members are heading up these independent groups, there appears to be a saturation of options.
One question that will be answered over the next two months: How will the media devote its space and time to cover so many candidates? Who makes the decision whether a candidate is worthy to receive coverage and will the political parties receive coverage by default?
In Santa Cruz, 21 candidates are hoping to win the top slot. In La Paz, Cochabamba and El Alto there are 16, 13, and 9 candidates respectively.
Posted by eduardo at 08:37 PM | Comments (1)
Thirteen Candidates
With the deadline passing for political parties and citizen groups to present their candidates to the Electoral Court, thirteen candidates will be listed on the ballot for Mayor of Cochabamba. Nine political parties and 4 citizen groups comprise the ballot.
Early speculation makes the MAS candidate and the new citizen group CU the two favorites. There is a strong feeling that NFR, which was started by former mayor Manfred Reyes Villa, has run its course. During the last term, 6 mayors rotated throughout the term (albeit one who passed away). The political party ADN, whose chief Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga resigned from this party, is not even presenting a candidate for mayor.
CANDIDATES FOR COCHABAMBA
Political Parties
MNR - Ivan Decker
MIR - Samuel Achá
MAS - Gonzalo Lema
MBL - Oscar Terceros
UN - Oscar Bakir
MSM - Javier Garcia
NFR - Johnny Antezana
MIP - Victor Portugal
UCS - Edwin Mallon
Agrupacion Ciudadana
PC (Primero Cochabamba) - Yamal Serham
Reacción Ciudadana - Mario Cortés
Molle - Antonio Galindo
CU (Ciudadanos Unidos) - Gonzalo Terceros
There are other interesting matchups throughout the country including Roberto Fernandez (Alianza XXI) battling his brother Johnny Fernandez (UCS) in Santa Cruz. The former Fernandez is counting on support from Tuto, while the latter Fernandez is struggling to remain relevant in the political scene. The incumbent mayor Juan del Granado (MSM) faces competition from Jaime Paz´ son Jaimito (MIR). In El Alto, the presence of a priest, Wilson Soria (MAS), makes for an interesting storyline.
Elections will be held on December 5, 2004.
Posted by eduardo at 12:15 PM | Comments (0)
Octubre 05, 2004
Mayoral Candidates To Be Announced
Slowly, official and unofficial sources have been revealing the names of the candidates for the 300+ municipalities. Both the political parties and agrupaciones ciudadanas have been making formal announcements. Incumbent mayors are required to resign their post in order to run for re-election. In La Paz, Juan del Granado officially resigned and launched his reelection campaign last Sunday. In Santa Cruz, Roberto Fernandez, brother of UCS chief Johnny, also resigned. It is expected that Rocio Luque may also resign to accept the nomination from NFR.
October 6th is the official deadline to register candidates. This will definitely be an interesting campaign season, with a long list of candidates to choose from. Many observers worry that this will cause a vote dispersal, with the mayor being eventually selected by the councilmembers.
Posted by eduardo at 07:04 PM | Comments (0)
Agosto 19, 2004
The Scarlet Letters
Unscramble these letters: R, M, I, A, N, F, D.
What does it spell? Group them together: MIR, MNR, ADN, NFR and it spells trouble for the political party system in Bolivia. Ever since President Carlos Mesa assumed the Presidency last October without respresenting, nor the explicit backing of one of the traditional political parties, it is now hip to be an independent. Even though the President is struggling to find consensus within the Congress, the general public's opinion of these parties continues to be at an all-time low.
With the municipal elections scheduled for December 5th, hundreds are taking advantage of the new law stating that one does not need to be affiliated with a political party in order to run for office. At the deadline, nearly 917 candidates have expressed an interest in becoming Alcalde (Mayor) of their respective municipality.
This new law specifically allows agrupaciones ciudadanas (citizen groups) and pueblos indigenas (indigenous communities) to join political parties as the only organizations that are allowed on the ballot. However, before being placed on the December ballot, those who have expressed interest must gather signatures from 2% of the eligible voters in their municipality. Due to the small size of some municipalities, this number often equals between 5 and 99 signatures. Additionally, interested groups must submit a name, symbol, and the colors of their new group; as well as other legal documentation.
Yet, as this law strives to open up democracy to include people outside of the political party system, the list of those who have registered as a representative of one of these new eligible "independent" groups, reads like a who's who from the political party scene. For example, Ivo Kuljis, the businessman from Santa Cruz, once ran as a Presidential candidate with the UCS and in 2002, ran as Vice-President with Manfred Reyes Villa (NFR). Kuljis is now posing as the leader of a citizen's group named the Movimiento Unidad y Progreso (MUP).
The Department of Cochabamba leads the way with approximately 136 groups that have registered for the upcoming election. These new groups have colorful names such as: Ciudadanos Unidos (CU), Primero Cochabamba (PC), and Cambio Total (CT).
Those politicians who want to gain control of their municipality already see the beneficial strategy in distancing themselves and even formally going as far as renouncing their old party.
However, one party that has not shied away from their recognition as a political party has been Evo Morales' Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). As a frequent supporter of Carlos Mesa and a staunch defender of the Referendum process, he is gambling on this new-found perception that he wants to continue participating in the democratic system. Thanks to the extremism of Felipe Quispe and Jaime Solares, they make Evo seem like a level-headed moderate.
Whether or not this new perception that the MAS is much more than a cocalero movement and now a peaceful democratic institution, translates to the capture of major Alcaldias, remains to be seen. They have been the only major political party to announce their candidates before the September 7th deadline.
Perhaps the best chance to win one of the four major cities appears to be in Cochabamba. Gonzalo Lema, the Tarija-born writer, has gained a large curious following because he is not an insider politician. Pablo Sanchez has been named as the candidate in La Paz, and is expected to face stiff competition from the incumbent Juan del Granado. In Santz Cruz, Osvaldo Peredo, brother of current MAS leader Antonio, and the deceased guerrilla fighter "Inti" Peredo, faces an uphill battle in that city.
On the outside it looks promising to see so many people that want to participate in Bolivian democracy. However, seeing so many familiar former party members trying to shroud their identities behind the cover of these new groups, it is a bit disappointing. They will still try to work within the political party system. Support and votes will still be rewarded through the distribution of public sector jobs, favors and other patronage benefits.
The sheer number of candidates that may potentially be on the ballot will spread thin the available support and those groups (most likely the shamed political parties) that are the most organized and convey the perception that they have the best chance to win, will attract even more support. Those who are banking on aligning themselves with the eventual and likely winner, because of the possibility of these favors, will cancel out the true intentions of this new participation law.
Posted by eduardo at 08:32 PM | Comments (0)
Julio 31, 2002
Bolivia Presidential Election 2002
Results:
Posted by eduardo at 03:34 PM | Comments (0)