barrio flores

Diciembre 18, 2005

Fifty Percent?

There is a chance that Evo Morales will reach the 50% of the vote, which was considered impossible. Eighty percent of the vote has been counted. Quiroga trails with 31%

Posted by eduardo at 06:59 PM | Comments (3)

Diciembre 17, 2005

Predictions

Without a second round of voting, no candidate will reach the desired 50% + 1 outcome. However, many seem to think that MAS will reach a record high for popular vote. Even though they have not come close to crossing into the 40s% in any of the polls, I will go out on a limb and say that MAS will cross that line on Sunday with a figure close to 41-42% The reason I think that this is entirely possible is due to the large numbers of poll responders who say that their choice is “secret”. In my estimation, a large number of these people will vote for MAS, but are afraid to reveal out of fear of what others might think. There is a strong perception that those supporting this party are only the working poor, taxi drivers, bus drivers, campesinos, with very few middle class supporters. God forbid if someone who lives in the Zona Norte of Cochabamba and attends one of the prized private schools would admit to supporting Morales. However, there are more than people will be lead to believe.

A second prediction, MAS will place 2nd in Santa Cruz.

Posted by eduardo at 08:15 PM | Comments (0)

The Final Hours

So what's been up this past several days? For starters, I have been sick in bed for a good part of the week.

Official campaigning came to a close at midnight on Thursday. The top four Presidential campaigns had their final events during the week. Samuel Doria Medina (UN) found a unique place to hold his event, at the foot of the Cristo de la Concordia statue which overlooks Cochabamba. The location made it difficult for any curious individual to stop by. Accessible at night by a long winding road up the mountain San Pedro. The group Octavia performed.

Jorge Quiroga's PODEMOS party put on the most public affair, right in the middle of the Plaza Colon. Of the four campaign closing festivities, it was the only one I personally attended, out of curiosity. It seems as if many had the same idea, as the flag bearers and those dressed in red were concentrated near the front. Many many attendees were teenagers who seemed to be out for the chequeo ( a term used here by teenagers who want to "check out" who else is around ).

MAS' closing festivities was held in the Stadium Felix Capriles. At the peak of attendance, there was approximately 50,000 from the entire Department. A heavy storm scattered many of the attendees before the keynote address. Argentine singer Piero, Bolivian group Tupay and football star Julio Cesar Baldivieso were some of the main attractions.

Finally, MNR held its close of campaign in a private ceremony in their party headquarters.

More later..

Posted by eduardo at 08:37 AM | Comments (1)

Diciembre 13, 2005

Inside Information?

Last Sunday, Samuel Doria Medina insinuated that new polls would come out this week, which conveniently would shake up the order of finish. Doria Medina said that he thinks that one of the television channels (he didn't name which one) will release a poll mid-week, which would show Quiroga in first place and that Doria Medina would drop to fourth, with the MNR candidate Michiaki Nagatani in third place. He indicated that in the past, polls have been maninpulated to acheive a desired result. We'll see...

Posted by eduardo at 12:38 PM | Comments (1)

Diciembre 11, 2005

Symbolic External Vote

A new initiative called Vive Tu Voto will allow Bolivians living in the Washington DC area and in cyberspace to emit their symbolic, and non-binding vote for the December 18th elections. A couple of Bolivian restaurants will host these voting exercises. This has been an issue that strikes a chord with many Bolivian ex-patriates in the US, Europe, Argentina and Brazil.

From the website:

Background info - More than 1 million Bolivians have left the country in search of better professional development opportunities, employment and an improvement of living conditions. As a result, they have left their families, their communities and their constitutional rights.

It is important that the rights of Bolivian citizens are respected inside or outside of the country as indicated by Article 145 of the Electoral Law, which was replaced by the Electoral Code, Law 1984 of June 25, 1999 whose Title III Electors, First Paragraph, Registry, Article 97, which says: "The Vote of Residents Abroad. Bolivian Citizens, residents abroad can vote to elect President and Vice President in the General Elections. This law expresses and regulates that right."

Even if half of the number of potential voters abroad exercised that right, they would undoubtedly affect the outcome of next weekend's vote. Residents in Argentina have also pushed for this right. For now, all they can do is go through the motions.

Posted by eduardo at 07:44 PM | Comments (0)

Diciembre 10, 2005

Participating vs. Observing

Having been in the country a little over a week, I have yet to make contact with many relatives and other friends. When I arrive home at night, it is way past the acceptable 10 pm call cut-off time. When I do manage to briefly speak with them, they ask me what I have been doing. My answer has been that I have been “ayudando” with a Congressional campaign of a family friend. I stress that I am involved to learn and that it has been an eye-opening experience.

However, it is difficult to see where the line is drawn between observing and actually participating. What constitutes participating? Do I have to be a registered member of the citizen’s group/political party? If I help hand out campaign posters/stickers/literature, does that mean that I am officially a member of the campaign? Does the fact that I am riding around a car adorned with the citizen’s group/party’s name and colors mean that I am *part* of the campaign?

Around the strategy table, which is all inclusive including some teenage volunteers and others who have little to do with strategy, I have been asked by the candidate to add my input on simple things such as the layout of a new brochure. However, last night after a television debate, a few of us were sitting around giving reaction and analysis of some of the tense moments during the event, I spoke up and added my two cents, which gained some nodding heads in agreement. Yet, I have been very careful to remain in my place during the past week.

Some of the most enlightening moments during the past week have been my conversations with the 10 or so people affiliated with the campaign. I have been telling my educational background, personal experiences and prove that I am somewhat knowledgeable about Bolivian current events. So far, I have been accepted into the group (at least I think), which has been working for nearly two months before I had arrived.

It has been something that I have been struggling against, to determine whether I have retained my early observation mode or whether it was just a matter of time that I would be participating more and more. I must admit that at times the adrenaline rush is overwhelming, such as the preparation for and during the televised debate (more on that later). Campaign strategy can also be exciting, when you pick up little things along the way, about the way many journalists work in Bolivia.

Where is the line between participating and observing? Any ideas? I think this is unchartered territory for someone. That is why it has also been a struggle to know how much to reveal, because there hasn’t been a precedent with an experience like this.

Posted by eduardo at 12:00 PM | Comments (1)

Diciembre 09, 2005

On the Clock

Following “Bolivian time” on the campaign trail would seem to be a trainwreck waiting to happen. However, somehow, everything turns out alright. Each day, on a rotating basis, one staff member is assigned to accompany the candidate and to be in charge of that day’s events. These responsbilities include knowing where the campaign event will be held, who is the contact person and to make sure that the group follows the schedule. In one day, there could be up to 10 events, which includes meetings with different organizations, walking the neighborhoods, radio and television interviews and staff meetings.

With so many places to visit with so little time, events are often bumped or cancelled altogether. On the weekly calendar on the wall, each event is assigned a specific time when the candidate needs to be at the location. I have been noticing that we have never arrived at the time indicated on the wall calendar. But there is almost a sixth sense to know when we must absolutely leave to arrive at an acceptable time.

There are staff members who are responsible for securing media interviews. The political advisors often recommend or decline some of the interview requests because of the common-knowledge that a particular journalist is biased or affiliated with another political party and is out for blood. Other staff members are also in charge of looking for endorsements from various organizations. As a result, they always lobby that their event is more important and many events get double-booked. In the end, the candidate has the final call as to which one gets bumped.

For example, today the candidate was invited as the guest of honor at a graduation in a urban neighborhood, which was scheduled months before the candidate even announced intention to run for office. At the event, it was not an explicit campaign stop, but there was time to pass out literature and the other staff members had the party logo and colors. The graduation was slated to start at 1 pm and we did not arrive until 3 pm. Immediately following that event, which ended at 5 pm, we rushed off to another graduation, which was supposed to start at 4 pm.

Fortunately television interviews are almost always taped in advanced and showed at a later airing. Arriving late to those appointments are not the end of the world.

Often the other car (we only have two different cars at our disposition) arrives ahead and assures the contact person that the candidate is on the way. The little white lie of “ya estamos llegando” (we are almost there) is used anywhere from the time that we are just leaving or to a time that we are on the road still a ways away. Cell phones are the lifeblood of a campaign. Communication between all the different staff members coordinating among themselves, with the candidate, with headquarters is easily facilitated by these commonly found gadgets. The only problem is when the cars travel to rural areas up the mountainside where cell phone signal is spotty at best. The night that I met the Presidential candidate, he was operating with two different cell phones, one in each pocket (both rang at the same time non-stop).

When the candidate finally arrives to a scheduled event, those waiting never seem to be disappointed for having had to wait. However, as a result, the candidate feels a bit guilty for not staying on schedule and is determined to give them their money’s worth (a figure of speech, there is no money exchanged). Then, the rest of the schedule is pushed back as a result.

In the end, getting in and out of cars, hearing more or less the same speech, not having time to stop for lunch and/or dinner, and all the travel in cramped vehicles leave me thoroughly exhausted at the end of the day.

Posted by eduardo at 09:58 PM | Comments (1)

Diciembre 08, 2005

Elections at Close Range

A funny thing happened along the road to the December 18 elections. On my part, there was a bit of excitement to be around the hoopla and intensity of one of the most historic elections in Bolivian history. Hearing the word on the street and just talking politics would have been satisfying enough. However, things took an unexpected turn earlier this week. A family friend decided to run for deputy (uninominal) in a zone on the outskirts of Cochabamba. He invited me to come along during the campaign trail.

Little did I know that I would have full access to the inner workings of a modest, yet intense campaign. For the past two days, I have accompanied the team during campaign stops in poor urbanizaciones and in rural villages high up in the mountains over the course of 12 hour days.

In between visits, we would return to campaign headquarters to discuss strategy and the latest news. I have been fortunate to have a seat at that table, but have yet to add my two cents. Television sets are set up in one of the rooms to document the number of times campaign ads run and any mention of the candidate on the news.

At times, the experiences seem so surreal. During two of the stops on Tuesday, entire speeches were given in quechua, as many of the voters in that area are rural farmers whose first tongue is the native language. The other day, we entered Cochabamba because the candidate still must campaign for the Prefect and Presidential candidate during his stops. I managed to meet the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates briefly as both were in town for campaign stops. We went to pick up the Presidential candidate in order to take him to a scheduled media interview that night.

I have been very careful to only support the congressional race, as I am still unsure of who I might support for President. I do not sport any colors of the political party and try to remain in the background as much as possible. However, I must admit that seeing campaigning at such a close range is an experience that few get to have.

Now the tricky part, I do not know how much I should reveal, since I value the confidence and access given to me. It would be foolish to run off to the computer and report on everything that I saw and heard. I must say that I am a little less cynical about politics after the two short days on the campaign. Perhaps after all of this done, I can write in fuller detail about my experiences and use more specifics. As soon as I am finished writing this post, I will take the trufi for the 15 km ride to the campaign headquarters.

Posted by eduardo at 10:13 AM | Comments (6)

Diciembre 06, 2005

Cross Voting

There is this funny little phenomenon taking place all across Bolivia. In 7 of the 9 Departments, the winner of the Presidential elections are all but decided. Either the PODEMOS or MAS candidate are considered favorites to wrap up the vote on a national level. However, Prefect elections, which are a first in the country, are not following this trend. Normally it might expected that a vote for a particular party would equal a similar vote for the Prefect of the same party.

Two particular cases jump out. In Cochabamba, Evo Morales is sure to win very handedly, but his Prefect candidate Jorge Alvarado (22%) trails AUN (ex-NFR and ex-Cochabamba mayor) Manfred Reyes Villa (53%). In La Paz, Morales also has gained the majority of votes according to the polls, but the PODEMOS candidate Jose Luis Paredes is leading with 53% the MAS Prefect candidate, Hugo Morales.

Other Prefect candidates that are running away with the race:

Pando - Leopoldo Fernández (PODEMOS) - 68%
Santa Cruz - Rubén Costas - Autonomía Por Bolivia (APB) - 50%
Tarija - Mario Cossío - Camino al Cambio (ERCC) - 53%

Cossío leads former Bolivian President Jaime Paz Zamora, in what might signal the end of a controversial political career.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 08:29 PM | Comments (2)

Diciembre 03, 2005

Election Everywhere

Take it all in. No, it is not the overpolluted air from the rusty old micros, but the smell of a fast-approaching election. Everywhere you go, anyone you talk to, all they want to talk about are the elections. During my stopover in Santa Cruz yesterday morning, the airport television sets ran non-stop election ads. I have not watched much television thus far, but I have seen Samuel Doria Medina's ad with the huge Bolivian flags waving in the background several times now. There is an identical one featuring one of the founders of the Nacion Camba, Carlos Dabdoub kissing the Bolivian flag running in Santa Cruz, but I have yet to see it in Cochabamba.

There are random cars driving around the city with flags waving. Window decals featuring Tuto Quiroga's PODEMOS can be seen on Volkswagon bugs around town. Mini-buses feature posters indicating their support for Evo Morales and MAS.

In various spots around the city, you can see teenagers wearing the colors of one of the parties handing out flyers. Not old enough to vote, one wonders what persuaded them to get involved with campaign. Could it be youthful idealism? Or maybe a couple of pesos in their pocket?

That brings me to the issue concerning why anyone gets involved with campaigning in the first place. PODEMOS is well-known for its embrace of transfugas, or individuals who were once part of the other traditional parties. However, it is becomding more clear that even MAS will operate as a traditional party. There are people getting involved with their campaign hoping to score a government job if MAS comes out victorious.

However, who can blame individuals seeing government jobs as their way out of such economic instability? The relatively small middle class in Bolivia was created by this dependency on a political system that encourages and manipulates through the patronage system. It seemingly seems worse off here than in times before, as there is an uncertainty of what might happen if either Tuto or Evo becomes President. Part of it may arise from scare tactics by pegging the other as the most radical of the right and left, respectively, than what is probably an a bit of an over-reaction.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 02:36 PM | Comments (0)

Diciembre 01, 2005

Boot Him

Stupid. If Evo Morales wanted to prove that he wants to become President via democratic means, he needs to denounce the latest blunder by MAS senator Roman Loayza. Many have speculated that if Tuto Quiroga becomes President, that mobilizations will be out in full force. However, now someone from MAS has explicitly stated just that.

The senator from MAS said that Quiroga wouldn’t last six months in the Presidency and the Morales would become President win or lose the 05 elections. Loayza admitted that he has had conversations with members of the military and police who will support a possible coup d’etat.

One MAS deputy, Gustavo Torrico, has already said that Loayza does not represent the official MAS position. According to Terra, Morales regretted the comments and that they were “desubicadas”. However, Morales needs to take serious action against the clueless Loayza, such as disowning him. Comments like this could set MAS back and make some have a second thought about supporting someone who has radicals like this in his campaign.

As expected, Quiroga is having a field day with these comments.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 03:30 AM | Comments (0)

Noviembre 24, 2005

Double Standard

The U.S. ambassador at the time, Manuel Rocha, has been blamed for the surprising finish by Evo Morales in the 2002 elections. When he claimed that the Bolivia would risk their foreign aid if Morales were elected, many denounced his statements as interventionist and meddlesome. For some, those comments provided a little extra incentive to vote for the MAS candidate.

This time around the current ambassador, David Greenlee has been forced to hold his tongue, although recently his open-ended statement was left open for interpretation. Many wondered and others opined when he said, “I hope that there will not be any negative changes (in drug policies) because Bolivia would be the country that would suffer.” Critics would say that this statement constitutes as a threat from the country to the north. But others would simply say that radical changes to the drug control policy may bring about unknown results including less pressure on the real criminals.

It’s hard to not get caught in these types of no-win situations, when the U.S. ambassador has its place firmly in the political arena in Bolivia. Whenever something comes up, the press rushes to the embassy for some public comment or reaction. Ideally, the embassy should continue the vague neutral and boring statements that the State Department makes and say “we’ll work with whoever becomes the next President” and stay out of the public spotlight over the next month. The majority of Bolivians would say that the U.S. should “publicly” stay out of internal matters, even they all know that behind-the-scenes there must be some maneuvering.

Now that much of South America has made a move towards the left, other countries are starting to have some influence in Bolivia. So it’s no wonder that foreign officials are beginning to make a pronouncement about these upcoming Bolivian elections. A diplomat from Venezuela, Azael Galero, made a faux pas by pulling a Rocha, on a much larger scale, which others criticized the U.S. for doing.

Venezuelan diplomat Azael Galero compared the Bolivian right-wing candidate for next month's elections, Jorge Quiroga, to Pontius Pilate.

He said Mr Quiroga was defending the "interests of the empire", adding: "you are either with Chavez or with Bush".

Already the Bolivian government has reacted and will bring their concern to Venezuela’s attention. However, this is Morales chance to publicly denounce this similar interference. It would go a long way in proving or not that Morales does not blindly follow Hugo Chavez and can call him out on matters like this.

Update: 11.25 - Alvaro Garcia Linera, MAS VP Candidate said in a press conference: "We have always refused any interference from any embassy; we have always criticized meddling by the US embassy. Accordingly, we do reject interference by the Venezuelan chargé d'affaires." As expected, Tuto Quiroga also condemned the comments.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 12:37 PM | Comments (2)

Noviembre 22, 2005

Ban the Cell Phone

As seen on P.A.T. news, Mario Cossio (ex-MNR), who is running for Prefect in Tarija will formally request that cell phones, especially those with built-in cameras be banned from the voting booth. Cossio is concerned that the phone could be utilized as a tool for voter fraud. According to Cossio, a person would receive a camera phone, enter the voting booth and take a picture of the completed ballot. With that image, they would exchange the picture and phone for payment for supporting a certain candidate.

Forget the cash reward, I think the voter would rather keep the camera phone.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 11:07 PM | Comments (0)

Noviembre 20, 2005

Evo Morales in the New York Times

People outside of Bolivia know relatively little about Evo Morales. Some romanticize the movement as a faultless leftist utopia, while others demonize Morales by utilizing the same generalizations without truly seeing how the rhetoric has evolved. It’s fair to say that these inconsistencies (dare I say, "flip-flops") cloud the reality of where the entire MAS movement stands in relation to policy proposals, ranging from the extreme radical left to something more towards the center. This New York Times magazine article by David Rieff should provide better clues to where the party stands, while hoping to draw attention to differences from Latin America’s public enemy No. 1 and No. 2.

Even though Morales calls Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro close friends, it is his admiration for Brazil’s Lula that may give a sign as to how he might govern.

Many Bolivian observers say they believe that MAS is nowhere near as radical as its rhetoric makes it appear. They note that conservative opponents of Brazil's current leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also predicted disaster were he to be elected, but that in office Lula has proved to be a moderate social democrat. And MAS's program is certainly much more moderate than many of its supporters would like. Washington, however, is not reassured. Administration officials are reluctant to speak on the record about Morales (the State Department and Pentagon press offices did not reply to repeated requests for an interview), but in private they link him both to narco-trafficking and to the two most militant Latin American leaders: Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's leftist populist military strongman, and Fidel Castro.

With over 75% of Bolivians favoring nationalization, it’s hard to say what contractual changes may be in store. Most agree that it is far from the Quispe model of confiscating everything without due compensation. It becomes more apparent that partnerships with the oil companies are still desired, but without the natural resource ownership by the foreign companies that has been the norm. This position suddenly doesn't seem so radical, as it is duplicated around the world.

A telltale sign of this is the way Morales and MAS, while not repudiating previous statements about the changes they want to make in the Bolivian economy, seem to be leaving the door open to a more moderate approach. Increasingly in speeches and interviews, Morales has taken to emphasizing that when, for example, he speaks of nationalization, he is mainly speaking of Bolivia's reassertion of sovereignty over its natural resources and of partnership with multinational corporations, not, à la Fidel Castro, of the systematic expropriation of the multinationals' interests in Bolivia. Morales commented to me that "Brazil is an interesting model" for cooperation between the state and the private sector, and, he added, "so is China."

There are many who feel that MAS is so ill-equipped to govern a nation and that they might blow the potential treasure of natural gas reserves. However, there have been some prominent economists who think that their proposals aren’t so wacky after all, which may prove important in legitimizing their position.

Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate who was formerly the chief economist of the World Bank and is now a professor of economics at Columbia University and a stern critic of many international lending institutions, put it to me this way: "They could do it." If Bolivia abrogated its existing contracts, he said, some of the non-Western oil giants would gladly negotiate new deals on better terms. "Petronas" - the Malaysian state oil company - "would come in, China would come in, India would come in." If Morales did nationalize the country's oil and gas, the multinational oil companies that currently hold the Bolivian concessions, including Repsol, a Spanish company, and British Gas, would probably sue Bolivia in an international court and try to organize an international boycott. But Stiglitz dismisses that threat: "If you had three, four, five first-rate companies around the world willing to compete for Bolivia's resources, no boycott would work."

When most people talk about Morales, phrases that come to the forefront always are associated with drug trafficking. Yet, with the number of political enemies he has, no one has yet to find proof that he teams up with the drug dealers. Without this proof, it seems difficult to place one’s finger on why Morales is so dangerous to the region.

Publicly, Thomas A. Shannon, Noriega's successor, has taken a more low-key approach. But the Bush administration's view of Morales does not appear to have changed significantly. Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, a policy group in Washington, and one of the shrewdest and most experienced American observers of Latin America, told me that he has been struck by the depth of conviction in Washington that Morales is dangerous. "People talk about him as if he were the Osama bin Laden of Latin America," Shifter told me, adding that, after a recent lecture Shifter gave at a military institution, two American officers came up to him and said that Morales "was a terrorist, a murderer, the worst thing ever." Shifter replied that he had seen no evidence of this. "They told me: 'You should. We have classified information: this guy is the worst thing to happen in Latin America in a long time."' In Shifter's view, there is now a tremendous sense of hysteria about Morales within the administration and especially at the Pentagon.

It’s easy to lump Morales into the camp of Castro, where individual freedoms have been severely curtailed and with Chavez, who has overstepped his bounds on many occasions. However, Morales seems to want to distance himself from many of the extremes that both men employ.

But he is at some pains to make the point that neither Venezuela nor Cuba is a model for the kind of society he wants Bolivia to become. Castro and Chávez, he told me, are his friends, but so are Secretary General Kofi Annan of the United Nations, President Jacques Chirac of France and Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero of Spain. Morales also makes a point of emphasizing that the era of "state socialism" is past. Even when he is talking about the nationalization of Bolivia's natural resources, which with the depenalization of coca cultivation is the central plank of his campaign, Morales is at pains to point out that the model he has in mind is closer to Brazil's state-owned oil giant, Petrobras, than to anything Castro would endorse.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 09:28 PM | Comments (5)

Noviembre 18, 2005

Lofty Expectations

Evo Morales seems to be promising the moon during this election season. In reality, some think Morales isn't as radical as his rhetoric. He needs to secure the campesino vote and hope that Felipe Quispe's MIP does not steal support from the Altiplano and some areas of El Alto. But his campaign promises, which will not be easy to implement with a strong opposition in Congress (assuming he wins the Presidency, which is far from certain), may be a bigger headache than first realized. A recent Financial Times article sees the pressure from the social movements (such as Cochabamba activist Oscar Olivera) as being a key actor in the day after the inauguration.

But ultimately, a Morales administration could be brought down by failing to satisfy its supporters. Asked how long the social movements would grant Mr Morales to nationalise the gas industry, Mr Olivera is unequivocal: "We will give him one day."

We have to remember that Morales originally supported a 50-50% split on the controversial hydrocarbons issue, but politically it was in his best interests to push for full nationalization. I imagine that his team of advisors prefer the moderate and centrist model, but the overwhelming pressure from the radical left is too much to ignore.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 10:26 PM | Comments (0)

Noviembre 17, 2005

OAS to Monitor Elections

A group of election observers, headed up by Colombian Horacio Serpa, from the Organization of American States arrived in Bolivia. They have set up shop and will remain in the country through the December 18 elections. Currently they are meeting with the different candidates. President Eduardo Rodriguez has also requested the presence of the United Nations and the Carter Center. In addition to the various international organizations, MAS candidate Evo Morales would like to see Brazil's Worker's Party (PT) observe the elections as well. No word on whether President Lula's party will formally participate in the observation process.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 01:05 AM | Comments (0)

Noviembre 13, 2005

From Evo's Photo Album

The MAS campaign recently released some childhood photos of its Presidential candidate, Evo Morales. These photographs were published to Yahoo! Photos by Reuters. The one that stands out (pictured below) really captures the essence of next month’s elections. For the first time ever, an indigenous Bolivian citizen is on the verge of capturing the Presidency of the Republic of Bolivia.

In the middle of rural Orinoca in the Department of Oruro, 17 year-old Evo (in blue) timidly poses with his mother, father, brother and others from his family. On that day, surely in a million years, Evo would never imagine himself leading in the polls of an election, nearly three decades later. That picture places things in perspective and reminds us of the possibilities of different groups of Bolivians.

Like me, Tuto Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina are minorities in Bolivian society. No one in my family wears polleras (skirts typical of campesina women). No one in my family works as an empleada (domestic house worker). No one in my family is discriminated against because of our last name (a luxury not afforded to members of a Mamani or Choque family).

This forgotten class of people, which makes up a large bulk of Bolivia’s population, would not believe beyond their wildest dreams that he/she would have a legitimate opportunity to become President of the country. I remember the clichéd phrase that schoolchildren from the U.S. are always told, “you could become President someday.” I’d be willing to bet little Evo’s teacher never uttered that phrase to him or any of his classmates. Sadly this is the pattern of marginalization throughout society.

That’s what this election is all about – counterbalancing this inequality.

While I haven’t always agreed with Evo’s tactics or use of rhetoric, any objective-minded person must admit that something must fundamentally be altered in the country. The only option for the left is far from perfect, but it resonates with a large part of the electorate and even with growing numbers of middle class, including many from my family in Cochabamba. That is why he is polling so high, because the old ways haven’t made a significant dent in these divisions.

Unfortunately, there has not been an effort by the middle class to reach out to the poorest of our Bolivian brothers and sisters. Even though many of the middle class still are not entirely on stable economic footing, there is a social safety net provided by the family structure is still a lot more than most count on. Those with the power have never been eager to share with others. The mess in Congress by the lame duck politicians are proof of this – they wanted to delay the elections as long as possible because it was the easiest job they ever loved.

These fundamental differences and wedges within Bolivian society will not diminish as long as we stay the course with the status quo. Trickle-down economic policies and a society that concentrates power and wealth in the hands of a select few won’t alter the fate of hundreds of thousands of Bolivians who have been left out. Will it be expropriating land from anyone who is not a member of an indigenous group? No way, although some want voters to believe that’s the country’s future.

It's easy for us to criticize Evo because we don't face the same life that many in Bolivia contend with everyday. If the traditional political parties had improved lives during their times in office, then would Evo Morales even be where he is?

Category: Bolivia

More pictures after the jump.

Posted by eduardo at 09:54 PM | Comments (7)

Noviembre 06, 2005

Tuto Needs Some Attention Too

Is there anyone else running in this race besides Evo Morales? Everywhere you look on Bolivian local news, CNN en Espanol and other foreign press, all you see is Evo side by side with Hugo Chavez and Diego Maradona for all of Bolivia and the world to see.

The 2nd place candidate Tuto Quiroga feels left out. So what does he do? He makes statements that doesn't resonate with the majority of Bolivians.

Quiroga, when asked about the Summit of the Americas defended the free market and an open commercial relationship with the government of George W. Bush..

"I want to fill George Bush full of products (how else can one translate - "Al señor Bush yo le quiero llenar de productos"?). We must sell more goods to the United States, and when you sell more, it generates more employment and more opportunities. We're going to go as a government to tell them we are going to make a fresh start and a new external debt tab," said Quiroga. He also emphasized that Evo Morales "got on the wrong train" alluding to the convoy which Morales participated in along with other international figures from Buenos Aires to Mar del Plata, where the summit was held.

Does anyone actually believe this line of thinking? The majority of Bolivians have waited to see the results of this type of rhetoric trickle down to them for far too long. What it has done in the past is make the gap between rich and poor larger and larger. That is the reason Evo Morales is polling in the 30s.

"Everyone has the right to get on the wrong train. If Evo Morales wants to get on the wrong train, fine, (but) Bolivia will not get on the wrong train because it needs to sell products and not send insults," said the ex-President.

I hope, for Tuto's sake, that he doesn't use this whole train thing for the rest of the campaign. Tuto offers no alternative, it is simply a message of "stay the course" and maintain the status quo. For the majority of Bolivians, the status quo is unacceptable.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 12:49 AM | Comments (14)

Forty Percent

My original prediction that Evo Morales will receive 40% of the popular vote may be a bit low if one follows past history. Pagina 12 from Argentina published an interview prior to Evo's participation in the festivities in Mar del Plata. One point becomes especially important, the fact that past polls always underestimated MAS' final tally. If that happens again, could it be possible that Evo wins outright?

P12-If MAS does not obtain 50% + 1 and the election needs to be decided by a Congressional vote, could there be an alliance with the right?

EM-Neither of the candidates are proposing a structural change. Doria Medina and Tuto Quiroga want to maintain the economic model. We are banking on winning the 50% + 1, because in the two previous national elections in which we participated, we were always underestimated in the polls. In 1997 we tripled the poll results and in 2002 we finished in 2nd. Now they say we have 38% and if we triple that, we win by a landslide.

Too much can happen in the next six weeks, but no one seems to know if Evo has peaked or is just gaining momentum. No one believes for a minute that he'll triple the 38%, but there may be a record number of blank votes in the December election, which would probably help the front runner.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 12:04 AM | Comments (0)

Noviembre 05, 2005

Evo y El #10

Say what you will about the Bolivian Presidential candidate who is steadily gaining momentum. Already leading in most of the recent polls, Evo Morales may come across a bit awkward when dealing with the media. He may spout off utilizing the same overused vocabulary from time to time. His campaign may overlook minute details that may appear to make him irresponsible. However, Evo Morales' last few days in Mar del Plata may prove to be a turning point in this election.

Evo was like a social butterfly, he was everywhere. Next to President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Evo would nod approvingly and clap in agreement. He was one of the leads in a march next to Hebe de Bonafini from the Madres de Plaza de Mayo. But it was being in the presence of (depending on who you ask) the 2nd best footballer in the world, that may give him a tremendous boost in the polls. Evo is now an international celebrity among the anti-globalization movement.

In terms of strategy, one may expect Diego Armando Maradona to arrive in Bolivia over the course of the next six weeks to help the Evo and MAS campaign. Imagine an Evo-Diego tour across the forgotten parts of Bolivia bringing soccer balls to communities in need of some attention. Sure it may seem like a populist type of publicity stunt, but it would accomplish two things. For starters, it would refocus the campaign and make poverty the number one issue. For some reason, people criticize Hugo Chavez for talking too much about poverty. Whether or not he is sincere about his concern about the poorest in his country is one thing, but at least the subject is being discussed. An appearance in a pueblito could really convince some skeptics that Evo is big-time. It probably wouldn't necessarily impress the upperclass, but the poor campesinos unsure about Evo's ability to govern, might see Evo as a legitimate force to be reckoned with. There might be something mystical about the candidate bringing one of the most famous South Americans to the country.

Now some might say that it would be foolish to appear next to Maradona, who is almost as famous as his struggles with drugs, as his footballing, but Evo's appearance at the protests in Mar del Plata only reinforces his image as the candidate of change in Bolivia.

Photo: Reuters

Posted by eduardo at 01:23 AM | Comments (2)

Noviembre 01, 2005

Rodriguez' Decree - Elections Scheduled for December 18

Obviously Congress was incapable to come up with a consensus among the countless proposals on the table in order to save the elections. This evening President Eduardo Rodriguez emitted a presidential decree. According to the Census, Santa Cruz gains three seats and Cochabamba gains one additional seat.

As a result, La Paz loses two seats, Oruro loses one and Potosi loses the one seat.

Now there is no excuse for elections not to proceed. Rodriguez, the caretaker interim president, also stated that elections will take place on December 18. The original date of December 4 was deemed logistically impossible by the Electoral Court who said that there was not sufficient time.

Rodriguez appeared on Bolivian television announcing his decision.

"It is extremely difficult to reach an agreement that satisfies all the regions,'' Rodriguez said. ``But Bolivian democracy is in danger if we don't hold elections."

I suspect that the populations in the three cities that lost Congressional seats won't feel much of an effect. It was basically the Congressmen who wanted an excuse to prolong elections in order to stay in the legislature as long as possible. Most Bolivians just wanted some certainty that elections would take place. Now they have it.

Update 1: All three leading Presidential candidates, Evo Morales, Tuto Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina support the decree. They, too, want the elections to move ahead and this decree guarantees that.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 11:51 PM | Comments (0)

Octubre 30, 2005

The Reaction

The Electoral Court says that there is not enough time to prepare the necessary materials for a December 4th election. Two other Sundays in December are still available and still remain as acceptable dates, although postponing the election an additional 7-14 days could negatively affect the frontrunner. In this case, the favorite is Evo Morales, as most polls have placed Morales in first place ahead of the other two major candidates Tuto Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina.

However, the entire country will wait and see how Evo reacts to the news of this near-certain postponement. He is already spouting off about neoliberal-this and oligarchy-that. If Congress does not decide soon or President Eduardo Rodriguez does not issue his decree, Evo and the self-described “destabilizing forces” in his campaign could take to the streets, causing serious inconveniences for the general public.

Surely that would have a negative effect on those middle class and urban voters, who have conveniently forgotten about his propensity to alternate between democracy and street mobilizations. The fact of the matter is that there are many middle class and urban voters who are strongly leaning towards supporting MAS. Bolivians have a short memory (after all, they allowed a former dictator to run for President and win – Hugo Banzer in 1997), but protests weeks before an election will surely chip away at Evo’s lead in the polls. Maybe that’s what some of the Congressmen are hoping for.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 02:39 AM | Comments (0)

Octubre 26, 2005

Jumping to Conclusions

MAS’ new website is designed well and easy to navigate. Turns out the site was designed by Komunicate, a company located in Medellin, Colombia. Miguel from MABB wonders why the site was designed in that relatively distant South American country, “Aren't there companies able to design and host websites in Bolivia?” A.M. Mora y Leon from Publius Pundit insinuates that there must be some dark relationship between Evo Morales and this company in Colombia,a country which has the “mala fama” of being heavily associated with narcotrafficking.

So why was it designed in Colombia, of all places? Well, not claiming to be a journalist, I decided to employ some journalistic practices. I simply wrote to the company Komunicate to ask them how they ended up collaborating with MAS from so far away.

Mr. Natalio Pinto Alvarado, the site’s webmaster, kindly responded to my inquiry via email. His similar responses are also up at the two aforementioned websites.

It turns out Mr. Pinto is Peruvian by birth, but studied at the Universidad Catolica Boliviana in La Paz for five years. After that, he worked as an operations assistant at various Bolivian television channels. During that time, he met his wife, who is from Colombia. Subsequently they decided to return to her home country to begin a life together. He writes:

“One additional point, I haven’t received a single peso for the work I have done with MAS, I did it to contribute my small piece for change in Bolivia. Yes, I am Peruvian, but I feel just like a Bolivian. The four years I spent in Bolivia made me care for that country, I am proud of its culture, its people and its history. Like many other Bolivians, I am tired of the continuation of poverty, hunger, inequality and discrimination that is deteriorating the country..”

Other Bolivian websites that the company has worked on include the Instituto de Desarrollo BIBOSI (Santa Cruz, Bo), Interacción y Desarrollo (La Paz, Bo), Vejez Digna (La Paz, Bo). None of the three are believed to have ties with narcotrafficking.

To see the new MAS website, click here.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 09:39 AM | Comments (12)

Octubre 24, 2005

Destabilizing Forces

Alvaro Garcia Linera, Vice-Presidential candidate for MAS said in a recent debate:

"The five largest movements that can mobilize in a destabilizing way are now with MAS,"

And this is a good thing?

Well, Garcia Linera seems to hint that a MAS presidency will halt (temporarily) the threat of blockades and marches, which Bolivians have grown weary of. But, Maria Rene Duchen, PODEMOS VP candidate wonders whether Garica Linera's statement is thinly veiled as a "threat". She countered that PODEMOS will not allow for destabilizing forces to even exist within the country.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 11:19 PM | Comments (0)

Octubre 15, 2005

Blue vs. Red

Better get used to them over the next six weeks. No, I'm not talking about the Presidential candidates, but we'll be seeing a lot of these blue and red jackets. Over the last couple of weeks, in many public appearances, these accessories have been spotted. Evo has been sporting his blue MAS jacket with his squeaky clean white sneakers for some time. Now Tuto Quiroga has broken out the red PODEMOS windbreaker. Maybe it's an attempt to create a kinder and gentler Tuto (PS - This is the first picture where I've seen him smiling). Gives new meaning to the whole Red State vs. Blue State.

Photos after the jump

Photos: Reuters

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 12:31 AM | Comments (1)

Octubre 11, 2005

Yet Another Poll

Evo continues to lead in the latest poll released by Equipos MORI and Unitel.

If these candidates ran for president, which one would you support?

Evo Morales (MAS)-33%
Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga (PODEMOS)-27%
Samuel Doria Medina (UN)-14%
Michiaki Nagatani (MNR)-4%
Felipe Quispe (MIP)-1%

Methodology: Interviews to 2,700 adult Bolivians in urban and rural areas, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 3, 2005. Margin of error is 1.8 per cent.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 12:06 AM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 30, 2005

Buzzword Alert

Which Bolivian Presidential candidate recently accused some political actors of falling victim to “Gonismo” during the electoral crisis currently taking place in Bolivia? As I wrote earlier, “Gonismo” is a popular buzzword used in reference to the negative influence that former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada still holds over Bolivian politics even when living comfortably in the United States.

It would be logical to arrive at the conclusion that it was Evo Morales who used this buzzword among his arsenal of talking points (also included: neoliberal, fascist, oligarchy). After all, he seems to be anti-everything. Instead, it was Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a person often linked to Goni-like policies, even though his ADN party was essentially in the opposition after the 2002 election.

In that context, Quiroga asked the social sectors, political parties and especially the government to “not allow themselves to be influenced by Gonista interests”

As this word is thrown about by anyone, it will continue to lose its original intent and no longer be an effective word to be used in the campaign.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 01:30 PM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 29, 2005

Evo in Paris

The Zapatistas enjoyed considerable success as the international community’s darling through their outreach and solidarity campaigns. Now it appears that Evo Morales and MAS are beginning to attract support in the activist circles. Evo was recently in France where he was the guest of the honor at a dinner to benefit his Presidential campaign.

Dinner for the Solidarity of the
Electoral Campaign of Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) in Bolivia
Guest of Honor: Evo Morales
Presidential Candidate for MAS
Wednesday, September 28 at 20:00
Location: Restaurant-bar 1492
Paris
Menu: 20 euros
Proceeds will benefit the MAS campaign. Other additional donations are welcome.

This information was brought to our attention by the creators of Blogs de Bolivia, which is an initiative that makes looking for these nice tidbits of information a lot easier on the web. The new blog by the group Comité MAS France will be an interesting one to watch to see how much interest Evo attracts in Europe.

Gustavo identified the connection between the site’s contact person and the editor of the left-wing El Juegete Rabioso, Sergio Cáceres, who is also a correspondent living in Paris.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 02:54 PM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 28, 2005

Elections on Shaky Ground

Bolivia’s Presidential Elections seem more and more unlikely to take place on December 4 as scheduled. The battle for Congressional seats has not been resolved through legislative channels. Interim President Eduardo Rodriguez vowed that elections will still take place on December 4. He is itching to return to the more tranquil post of Supreme Court President. Both front-runners are urging that the necessary adjustments be made to guarantee the vote. Morales said during his visit to France, “For the first time, indigenous groups hold the possibility of winning elections and now the Bolivian courts want to block those possibilities. The neoliberal model is only delaying its own demise.”

Even though elections will not solve fundamental problems in Bolivia, it was seen as a positive appeasement of the protests and marches that paralyzed the country. The way the country works these days, problems are solved in an either/or format. Compromises are foreign concepts in Bolivian politics. Somebody will be unhappy with the final decision.

If the crisis is not resolved soon and elections postponed, the one group that will be happy will be the politicians who have been entrusted with coming up with a satisfactory solution. They were on their way to being unemployed come next January, because an entirely new Congress would be elected. This conflict delays the inevitable and they get to hang on to their cushy paycheck and all of the other unofficial perks associated with being part of the government. In the immortal words of Johnny Fernandez (head of the UCS party), “no roben, pero saquen algo” (don’t steal, but take something). Being a Congressman/woman, there really is not a better legal paying job in Bolivia.

So, it’s no wonder that it’s taking so long to resolve this mess.



Note: For a great entry on the shift in population and redistribution of Congressional seats, see Ciao!

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 04:47 PM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 27, 2005

"Newest" Released Poll

Via the Angus Reid site, the "newest" released poll found that Evo Morales still leads among the top three contenders for the December elections. The poll conducted by the company Encuestas & Estudios asked nearly 3500 Bolivians in 9 cities and 161 municipalities between August 20 and September 10.

If these candidates ran for president, which one would you support?

Evo Morales (MAS)...26.1%

Jorge Quiroga (PODEMOS)...22.6%

Samuel Doria Medina (UN)...12.3%

Nearly three weeks have passed since the last person was asked for his/her opinion. One might wonder whether Evo Morales' recent comments about legalizing coca and ending the U.S.' policies on coca eradication would have any affect on his polling numbers.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 02:52 AM | Comments (1)

Septiembre 20, 2005

Ballot

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 01:25 AM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 15, 2005

Coca and the Elections

“Is Coca an Issue?” wonders Boz in a recent entry referencing a Miami Herald article, which states that coca eradication policies could re-emerge during this election season. Attention could certainly be given to the contrasting differences in Tuto Quiroga and Evo Morales’ positions and histories on the topic. Quiroga has already governed during a period where these policies were in full effect with accompanying questionable results. No one really seems to know where Morales stands on the issue, all we know is that he is against it. These days the leaf escapes the headlines in a way that natural gas, Constituent Assembly or tax revenues does not.

Outside the Chapare and Yungas regions of Bolivia, coca eradication directly affects the daily lives of very few Bolivians. Yet, indirectly it affects the entire nation as millions of dollars from narcotrafficking has been removed from the circulating economy over the past two decades.

But what could convert this issue into a national topic could be based on the manner in which these policies are established. The disastrous Ley 1008, which seems to go after the “little guy” like those trying to squeak out a living selling coca to some middle-man or those caught transporting raw materials, was basically written by U.S. advisors. That has set a disastrous precedent. Some might say that it is highly feasible that the U.S. or other outside interests could do the same with the controversial Hydrocarbons Law. National sovereignty is the issue, not necessarily the innocent coca leaf. National sovereignty, as the name suggests, is a national issue.

Many who stand against any form of coca eradication say that cocaine production is not Bolivia’s problem. Demand from abroad fuels the supply. Eliminating coca eradication would be dangerous. There’s no question that fundamental changes need to be made in the manner which these policies are developed. Other accompanying changes need to be made so that farmers growing alternative agricultural products have a fair shot at just trade (i.e. the elimination of farm subsidies). Sadly, coca production must be regulated or else Bolivia could fall victim to another form of capitalism. (Why doesn’t Evo speak out against the exploitation of coca farmers by cocaine manufacturers who profit manifold from the cocaleros?)

Reason would call for an objective study to determine how much coca is needed to supply the national consumption and traditional use. But as article reports:

Where the coca goes after the markets, however, is a question growers don't have answers for.

''We are just following the legal procedures,'' Chipana said. ``Maybe some of the coca is going to drug production, but that's out of our control.''

Like it or not, any military presence in the Chapare reduces the chance that coca production is not allowed to grow out of control, benefiting the real criminals. If Evo wins the Presidency, there could be the temptation to boot the U.S. out of the Chapare. What could result is a lawless region where narcotrafficking rules, perhaps introducing violence and weapons to the mix. That would then, affect the lives of more innocent Bolivians caught up in that circus.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 04:13 PM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 10, 2005

Hard Hitting News

Every other day or so, Google News comes in handy. Type in “Bolivia” and see what comes up. It is definitely a mystery of how the formula operates that determines what news stories are generated. Surely no one is on hand to keep an eye on things, but some of the writings from la Prensa Latina are certainly mind-boggling. There’s no doubt that much of what the Prensa Latina writes constitutes as opinion, but it is trying to pass as “news”.

My example is the recent story “Turncoats Rejected in Bolivia”, in which the author takes the opinion of its favorite pal, Evo Morales, and turns it into fact. The story is in reference to the popular trend of party politicians switching allegiances by joining one of the new Citizen’s Groups, such as Tuto’s PODEMOS in order to escape the mark of being a politician. Even without stories like this, most Bolivians know what’s going on. This trend started in the Municipal Elections is even more important because it essentially marks the end of the parties: ADN, MIR and UCS.

Some troubling paragraphs (bold and underline – my emphasis):

"La Paz, Sep 7 (Prensa Latina) A general rejection against dozens of turncoat politicians recruited by two Bolivian presidential candidates is favoring progressive candidate Evo Morales."

Obviously this trend favors MAS, but I think progressive is definitely a subjective opinion. Perhaps the author means that Evo is getting progressively more ridiculous over the years? Or perhaps his disapproval ratings are getting progressively higher and higher as he continues to advocate for roadblocks and his party pushes for violence (in reference to some protestors threatening to storm Parliment and apply communal justice to politicians (i.e. beatings or lynching).

The displeasure caused by the unethical behavior of traditional parties, revealed by the media, was shared by businessmen and condemned by Morales, leader of Movement Towards Socialism (MAS).

Would unethical behavior also include preventing the poorest of the poor, who may not be members of unions or sindicatos, from earning a living because of roadblocks and protests?

The traitors are trying to explain their behavior; most of them convinced that they were not really militants of the parties they abandoned.

It’s one thing to attribute the label “traitor” or “turncoat” to something that Evo called them, but to start using them as their official label is another thing.

These are practices that are making Bolivian politics, and even society almost unbearable. One keeps assuming that if you don’t support Evo, then obviously you must be in bed with Tuto Quiroga, neoliberalism, Goni and all of the oppressive forces in the universe. This polarization is increasingly dangerous, as no middle ground seems to exist on the ballot.

Certainly Evo has just as many flaws as the recycled politicians that are attempting to hold onto their power as much as possible. Some, like Oscar Olivera, also considers Evo Morales as one of the political elite and he has been labeled a traitor himself by Jaime Solares. But this media, that gives other left-leaning Bolivians a bad name, seem to think Evo Morales walks on water.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 04:56 PM | Comments (2)

Septiembre 06, 2005

Eight Candidates for the Presidency

A - Gildo Angulo : Nueva Fuerza Republicana (NFR)
B - Samuel Doria Medina : Unidad Nacional (UN)
C - Nestor Garcia Rojas : Unión Social de los Trabajadores de Bolivia (USTB)
D - Evo Morales : Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS)
E - Michiaki Nagatani : Movimiento Nacional Revolucionario (MNR)
F - Jorge Quiroga : Poder Democratico Social (PODEMOS)
G - Felipe Qusipe : Movimiento Indígena Pachacuti (MIP)
H - Alcides Rodriguez: Frente Patriótico Agropecuario de Bolivia (FREPAB)

Individual Photos: La Razon

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 10:34 AM | Comments (5)

Septiembre 05, 2005

Tuto's War

Via Danny's daily summary of Bolivian news in the international press, a story titled "Tuto's World War III" written by Bolivian writer Edumundo Paz Soldán appeared in the Chilean magazine "Que Pasa?"

The article written in Spanish takes a look at Tuto and his background in the United States, including his rise through Bolivian politics.

One can recall some of Quiroga’s first experiences in government and his rigidness for accounting, the austerity with public expenses, and his ability to negotiate with the United States and the international organizations like the World Bank and IMF. It was during those years that Quiroga became the privileged interlocutor of the United States. During that period, it was one of his greatest strengths.

Now, with the changed panorama, his opponents see that as his weakness. “Tuto thinks like a North American,” says one of his opponents; “he shares their values, their lifestyle and even the sense of humor of a North American. He has a technocratic focus for politics and a ‘management’ ideology.”

For the entire article, please visit the website: Bolivia: Lo Mejor Que Tenemos (which has the entire article).

Posted by eduardo at 05:27 PM | Comments (0)

Septiembre 03, 2005

Tuto's VP

As formally announced on Saturday (and leaked on Friday), Tuto Qurigoa selected his running mate for the December Elections. María René Duchén will be the VP candidate for the citizen's group Democrático Social (Podemos). Even if her name doesn't ring a bell, many will recognize her as a newscaster for the television station ATB.

After Rene Joaquino's withdrawal as the candidate of the now-defunct Frente Amplio, Quiroga was unable to convince the Potosi mayor to join his citizen's group. With the selection of Duchén, Quiroga appears to be going harder after the middle class and other urban residents' votes. It was important for him to select a perceived "non-politician" for the slot. For the second straight election cycle, a major television personality will be on the ticket for one of the front-runners (Carlos Mesa was a P.A.T. newscaster).

Duchén hails from Santa Cruz. The Quiroga-Duchén ticket is the third pairing that has been confirmed. The others: Evo Morales - Alvaro Garcia Linera (MAS) and Samuel Doria Medina - Carlos Dabdoub (UN)

Posted by eduardo at 05:12 PM | Comments (4)

Agosto 30, 2005

Over Before It Started?

One of the "Alcaldes" that comprised the founding members of the Frente Amplio (FA) movement headed by Rene Joaquino, Presidential Candidate, has jumped ship. Miguel Becerra, mayor of Cobija in the small Department of Pando, accepted Samuel Doria Medina's offer to be the Unidad Nacional's (UN) Prefect candidate. So now there is speculation that this FA is slowly coming apart at its seams. It hasn't helped that Joaquino has been polling in the single digits, with most Bolivians not even knowing who he is.

Bolivian politics relies on name recognition and cutesy nicknames. There's "Tuto" and "Evo" and the fallen "Goni". Even the former President Jaime Paz Zamora is better known as "El Gallo". Samuel Doria Medina better find himself a nickname, if he wants any chance to stay in the race. (I suggest "Burger Boy" in reference to his ownership of the Burger King franchises in Bolivia).

Unfortunately for FA, its most famous member, Juan Del Granado (MSM), has decided to hold off any Presidential aspirations. There are some speculation that Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga is courting Joaquino as his Vice-Presidential candidate, whether that means dissolving the Frente Amplio or leaving the door open for del Granado to step up.

But these overtures made by Quiroga, who has been characterized as an extreme right winger, seem to make no sense.

The Mayors, including Gonzalo Terceros of Cochbamba (ex-NFR), are planting themselves firmly on the left, specifically the "modern left", (does that mean MAS is the outdated left?). Capitalizing on the election buzzword of being "anti-neoliberal", it would seem that eventually the FA would give its support to Evo Morales by default. So if Tuto does manage to convince that there is room for the left in his project, then the chances for a MAS presidency diminishes.

However, these speculations about a Joaquino defection to Tuto's team could work to Evo's advantage. These days any association with the political parties and "neoliberal" politicians automatically scores you negative points in Bolivian society. Joaquino and the mayors who want increased credibility could very well jump to the only remaining viable leftist candidate to prove that they mean business.

Joaquino must find a way to make a name for himself and show that he is an authentic political option for those who are tired of the same recycled politicians and are weary of Evo Morales' support for disruptive blockades. The FA also must hope for some more big names to come out in support of this project, such as El Alto's mayor Jose Luis Paredes (PP), who is a popular figure in that city. But what Joaquino needs is the biggest gun to come out of the woodwork for a heavy-duty endorsement.

Paging Carlos Mesa, please pick up the nearest courtesy phone.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 01:55 PM | Comments (4)

Agosto 03, 2005

René Joaquino - The Third Option?

Up until now, it has seemed to be a two-man race with Tuto Quiroga vs. Evo Morales for the Presidential Elections in December. Even though Samuel Doria Medina will prove to be a formidable challenger, especially with betting it all with the Santa Cruz vote (having chosen Nacion Camba founder and former MIR cabinet member Carlos Dabdoub as his VP candidate), it is thought that there are two distinct visions for the country on the line.

It is rather simplistic to divide the Bolivian vote into two competing ideologies. However, a third alternative has emerged from the "Alcaldes" and their new Frente Amplio. This new Front has strongly professed itself as being "anti-neoliberal", a key in this year's election. One would naturally expect popular leftist La Paz mayor, Juan del Granado (MSM) to be the logical candidate for this new Front. Likely Granado is setting himself up for a future run in 2010 (or earlier as the trend has been). Perhaps it also had to do with del Granado only recently deciding once and for all in joining this new Front, instead of an earlier possible alliance with Evo and MAS.

Instead this new group, which includes Cochabamba mayor "Chaly" Terceros and other mayors from Oruro and Cobija, chose Potosi mayor René Joaquino. Back in January, the Santa Cruz daily El Deber ran a profile piece on this aspiring politician.

Why has he suddenly become important? He appeals to parts of the country that are mainly indigenous, because he is of quechua descent. His independent nature and transparent administrations have proven to be popular in his hometown. Now with the cementing of del Granado's support to the Frente, he can pile up votes in La Paz.

Even though he once participated in an alliance with NFR, and was once rumored as Goni's VP candidate in 2002 before Carlos Mesa emerged as a serious possibility, he doesn't carry the baggage of being of the old guard.

The Frente is also looking east to gain national legitimacy. Recently, the Frente Amplio, extended an invitation to sugar industrialist Mariano Aguilera from Santa Cruz to be his running mate. However, recently, he turned down the opportunity citing differences with Del Granado and his earlier flirtations with Evo Morales.

There's a strong possibility that Joaquino can appeal to many across the country, if he manages to get a VP candidate that appeals to Santa Cruz. The problem right now is that no one seems to know who he is. Bolivian politics loves big and well-known names, and Joaquino is still an unknown.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 09:25 PM | Comments (3)

Julio 26, 2005

Look East

Everyone knows how important the Santa Cruz vote will be in the December elections. After all, it is the fastest growing region in Bolivia and its economic importance cannot be disputed. In years’ past, the Occident has consistently voted for the traditional political parties, although that may change with the current high disapproval ratings for the old parties.

It is expected that all of the major candidates will clamor for a Cruceño Vice President. Even Evo Morales (MAS) wants to appeal to the Santa Cruz, where his party made a respectable showing in last year’s Municipal elections. The Frente Amplio candidate Rene Joaquino has already extended an invitation to Mariano Aguilera, a Cruceño sugar industrialist, who said he will consider the invitation. Samuel Doria Medina (UN) has called a press conference in Santa Cruz on Friday for an expected VP announcement. It was also speculated that Tuto Quiroga (AXXI) is making overtures to the former Santa Cruz mayor, Roberto Fernandez (brother of silly Johnny Fernandez (UCS)).

However, Santa Cruz may not limit itself to being represented by just a VP candidate. It is expected that Hormando Vaca Diez will be the candidate of MIR, after being so close to succeeding Carlos Mesa last month. The MNR candidate was thought to be the Cruceño Juan Carlos Duran, who recently said he would not be the candidate because of “gonismo”. The Civic Committee and business groups of that city have yet to announce what, how or who they will support or present for the December elections.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 10:04 PM | Comments (3)

Julio 25, 2005

Forgive Me, Father

From La Razon:

Posted by eduardo at 11:02 PM | Comments (0)

Julio 24, 2005

Samuel Doria Medina Interview - La Razon

La Razon has begun a series of interviews with the candidates that have officially announced his participation in the December 4 elections. Today's feature is on businessman and former MIR cabinet member Samuel Doria Medina. Currently he is leader of the Unidad Nacional (UN) party that is trying desperately to shake the perception that he and Tuto Quiroga are one in the same.

The cement magnate and owner of the Burger King restaurants in Bolivia calls his proposals for the "popular center," which he explains in food terms. His plans are "llajwa" (the national hot sauce) and not "ketchup". (It's interesting to note that in the Burger King restaurants, llajwa is available upon request.)

Doria Medina also addresses the fact that many have labeled him as "uncharismatic", a charge that he readily admits. He doesn't want to be the politician who greets hundreds of people each day, as he would rather be the one that solves problems, creates jobs and finishes successful projects.

His two main rivals also were mentioned by Doria Medina. At one time, he said he had more in common with Evo Morales, than with Tuto Quiroga. He explains that in December 2004, Evo had opted for the democratic route as he was unofficially part of Carlos Mesa's government. However, when he decided to blockade in 2005 and move away from democratic means, that is when any similarities ended.

The criticism towards Quiroga is based largely on Quiroga's being out of touch with Bolivian reality. Doria Medina says that Quiroga has been absent from the country ever since his term ended in 2002. He noted that it doesn't seem that Quiroga thinks that a change is needed.

Finally, in attempting to shake the "neoliberal" label, he says that it is true that much of his proposals are economic nature because that is at the root of Bolivia's problems. But, he wants to work with the informal sector and the small businesses to be at the basis of this economic revival.

Yet, he prides himself on being a candidate that can work with any of the regions in Bolivia. As a businessman, he has had many dealings with Santa Cruz and much of his advisor team comes from that Department. But his business also has taken him to the Occident and other parts of the country. His ease in working with all parts of the country is something that his two main competitors would find difficulty, with Evo in Santa Cruz, as well as Tuto in El Alto

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 11:15 AM | Comments (2)

Election Buzzword #1 - Gonismo

“Gonismo” – It’s hard to put your finger on what it actually means, but you better believe that many of the candidates, especially Mr. Evo Morales will be using the term liberally over the next four months.

Fair or not, former and exiled President, Gonzalo “Goni” Sanchez de Lozada is synonymous with the current crisis that Bolivia finds itself. Whether for the capitalization of several key industries or the yet-to-be investigated events in October 2003 where too many Bolivians were killed, Goni is public enemy number one to blame for Bolivia’s ills.

No one wants to be associated with him, even though almost every current politician has some links, i.e. Samuel Doria Medina (ex-MIR), whose party has been allied with both of Goni’s presidencies. Even some in his own party, MNR, want to distance themselves from their current/former party leader (depends on who you ask). If MNR wants to save some face in the December elections, it must show that it is Goni-free.

However, Evo will try his hardest to link the other candidates as collaborators of the former President, by perhaps suggesting that anyone who has ever worked with Goni, been in the same room as Goni, or even shaken hands with Goni, as guilty of having the mark of “Gonismo”.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 12:30 AM | Comments (1)

Julio 19, 2005

Cochabamba Poll

Now it's Cochabamba's turn to weigh in on its choice for President with its own poll. The Universidad Mayor de San Simon (UMSS) and its Political Science Department polled approximately 1,100 from the Cochabamba Department. Included in this poll, were individuals from the 14 municipalities that make up el Cercado, as well as the other 6 rural provinces including the MAS-supporting Chapare.

The results may indicate a bit of a surprise because many of the other polls only included responses from the urban centers, which includes many who despise Evo's radical measures that he supports. This poll included rural respondents and the rise in both Quiroga's and Evo's support eclipses other polls where each only reached 16-17%.

Tuto Quiroga (AXXI) - 29%
Evo (MAS) - 28%
Doria Medina (UN) - 11%

This just shows that this election will be fought along so many different divisions: indigenous vs. mestizo/white; occident vs. orient; and now urban vs. rural.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 09:43 AM | Comments (1)

Julio 17, 2005

Evo's Chances

Boz draws attention to the recent Council on Hemispheric Affair's Article titled: A Coca Grower to Lead Bolivia? The analyst argues that Bolivia is on the verge of electing Evo Morales, partly out of his Anti-American views. Q: But, what happens when that candidate is anti-Bolivian as well? A: High disapproval ratings. What else do you call views that jeopardize the incomes and livelihoods of thousands of working poor through the support of blockades and other anti-democratic measures, such as coercion and threats?

I certainly am not against what Morales hopes to reverse: economic and political exclusion, institutional racism and an economic model that has not delivered what had been promised (also the fault of a flawed system that encourages corruption). However, instead of building upon the historic finish in the 2002 election and Congressional victories, he has taken several steps back and alienated such a huge part of the country. His means do not justify his hoped net result, where other means were available to him.

In spite of the high disapproval rates, Morales doesn’t have zero chance of being President as Jim thinks in his entry in Blog from Bolivia:

I think that Evo has about as much chance of becoming President of Bolivia after next December’s elections as I have of being Bush’s pick for the US Supreme Court

His chances of becoming President are not entirely up to him. Likely he will not poll in the top spot and with the emergence of Samuel Doria Medina and the Mayors’ candidate (which we’ll get to later), where he could find himself in third place. But crazier things have happened, as there has been some rumblings of an alliance between the Mayors and Evo, but with the announcement of Rene Joaquino as the candidate for this “Frente Amplio”, Evo will not be their candidate for the elections, as previously thought, and will need their support should they finish behind MAS.

It is highly unlikely that there will be an alliance between all of the actors on the extreme left including Abel Mamani, Oscar Olivera, Jaime Solares and Felipe Quispe. Such a grouping could tally around 30% for Evo/MAS, but due to the distrust among these groups, each are likely to field their own candidate, which would further disperse the vote from the far-left.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 03:08 PM | Comments (2)

Julio 14, 2005

Another Poll

A poll conducted by the Universidad Franz Tamayo found that Samuel Doria Medina (UN) was the favored choice among the respondants in La Paz and El Alto.

Samuel Doria Medina - 15.2%
Evo Morales - 14.8%
Carlos Mesa - 14.1%
Jorge Quiroga - 13.8%

The main question is why do pollsters continue to include ex-President and ineligible candidate Carlos Mesa in these surveys? It doesn't appear that Congress is willing to change the Constitution to allow him to run. An even better question would be: for which candidate would those Mesa supporters give their vote to? The 14% would be valuable to any of the other three candidates.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 06:04 PM | Comments (4)

Julio 12, 2005

The Bolivian Vote Abroad

Evo wants Bolivians abroad to receive their right to vote in the upcoming December 4 elections. After all, when I was in Bolivia in November 2000 I submitted an absentee ballot as a U.S. citizen. Why couldn’t Bolivians living in Europe, the U.S. and in neighboring countries be allowed to decide the fate of their homeland? For one thing, these important elections are right around the corner and another thing is that most embassies and consulates are not equipped to handle such a huge responsibility due to manpower and lack of funds.

But why is Evo so interested in seeing the estimated 1 million-plus Bolivians living outside the country be able to vote? Surely he believes that many of those voters would be MAS sympathizers. Perhaps he thinks that the reason that so many saw the need to flee their native lands was caused by the dearth of opportunities caused by a failed neoliberal economic model.
Evo’s party is not called Movement Towards Neoliberalism, because every other word out his mouth is neoliberal-this and neoliberal-that.

Yet, it’s amazing to see how many Bolivians immigrants in the U.S. have thrived in this capitalistic society. It doesn’t matter if one’s surname is Mamani or Choque, here in the U.S. no one seems to care what you are, as long as you work hard and do a good job. (God, I sound like a conservative). Unfortunately in Bolivia, sometimes one's last name is already an obstacle needed to overcome. Yeah, I know it’s not so simple, but just observe Bolivian immigrants when they return to Bolivia. They have even less tolerance for blockades and marches, because those obstacles simply are not here. Imagine Columbia Pike in Arlington blockaded, so that businesses are closed. So many immigrants have achieved their American dream with hard work, being able to return to Bolivia with capital to live how they want. One might say that they want a Bolivia free-of blockades and marches, which Evo believes in 100%

So what’s the deal with Evo and his insistence on this external vote proposal? Ever since the Argentine crisis of 2001, Bolivians who had once lived in that country had been returning. However, there still is an estimated 1 million ex-pats living there. They are much more organized and politically active in that country. I recall seeing posters in Buenos Aires announcing immigrant marches demanding better working conditions. Sometime last year, an Argentine journalist made some disparaging comments about Bolivians. Soon after, there were dozens of Bolivians protesting outside the radio station. You would never see that in Virginia, where many are perceived to be politically apathetic because so many are busy with work or those long commutes.

But apparently, Evo has some serious business dealings in Argentine, which means some pretty hefty organizational structures there. Boli-Nica wrote about Evo’s fruit wholesale business thrusting money into his party, which may or may not be true because some of that information came from a rumor from the partisan Petroleum World website. Nevertheless, there must be something serious going on if Evo is 100% confident that he would benefit greatly from opening up the voting to all Bolviians no matter where they are. Or maybe Evo is so nervous about his prospects and his high disapproval rating, that he needs any support that he can get.

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 09:53 PM | Comments (1)

Julio 05, 2005

Bolivia General Elections December 4

Congress finally reached an agreement so that general elections will take place the first Sunday in December and the Autonomy Referendum and election of constituents in July 2006. The Prefect election has also been moved to December.

Many lawmakers were hesitant to give up their posts, but it looks like we will have a new Congress as well. Some wonder whether the threats of some members of the social movements played a part in all this. A leader of the COR from El Alto threatened to take Congressmen from their homes for "chicotazos" (whippings) if they did not resign.

The testy session of Congress that lasted way into the wee early hours of the morning, included some threats of violence. MAS senator Filemon Escobar threatened Congress' president Hormando Vaca Diez, "I want to be in prison for 30 years for the murder of Hormando Vaca Diez and I am going to do it right now." Exactly what we need now is more silly talk like this.

The Congressmen and women who resigned know that they need to appear as if they are doing this for the best of the country if they want any chance of being reelected. This election will be huge. Evo Morales now receives the chance to put his money where his mouth is. If he is as beloved as he says he is and is the "#1 political force" in the country, then he has nothing to worry about except for winning the election, right?

Category: Bolivia

Posted by eduardo at 11:23 AM | Comments (2)