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Marzo 18, 2006
While We Were Away
Two elections set for July
A “yes” vote will pass in all nine departments in the autonomy referendum set for july 2. Terms and conditions will be negotiated in the Constituent Assembly, as it should be. When President Mesa was in office, he clearly backed a “yes” vote across the board in the hydrocarbons referendum. So there apparently is precedent for a sitting official to campaign. Already the Cruceño prefect is demonstrating that his main purpose in life is to get the “yes” to pass overwelmingly. However, how much public funds will be used for this purpose?
Constituent Assembly Strategy
Compromise won out, when the official government proposal changed over the course of a weekend. Many were surprised by this flexibility that resulted in a more balanced composition of constituents. The most important change which will have a direct effect on strategy is the winner take all proposal. Originally, in each of the 70 districts, MAS proposed that any party that received more than 50% would gain all three seats, which would greatly benefit them based on trends from the general elections. The compromise now stands that the party that receives the most votes will only receive two seats and the 2nd place finisher, no matter how large the difference, would receive the remaining slot.
Strategy will be important in determining who will stand as candidates. For example, in the national elections of 2005, MAS and the Movimiento Sin Miedo (MSM), La Paz Mayor Juan Del Granado’s party, joined forces under the MAS umbrella. Without this alliance, it is very likely that MAS would not have received the 50+% in the country. Now they must decide whether members of these alliances should break apart for the Constituent election. In Central La Paz, stand-alone MAS could receive, 40% (for an example) and MSM could pull in 30%. This would guarantee all three seats to have more or less the same line of thinking. If they would enter under the same alliance, PODEMOS could win the third seat with 15-20%.
Watch for strategy sessions to take place, even in Santa Cruz, if PODEMOS splits in two groups, then MAS could surprise and gain 2 seats in many of the districts.
Soy Markets
The Colombia-United States “Free” Trade agreement appears to negatively hurt Bolivia. Under the guidelines of this agreement, Colombia will now import heavily-subsidized soy from the U.S., thus eliminating the need for more expensive Bolivian soy. The word free remains in quotations because supposedly free trade means equal footing. Colombia claims that it cannot change their agreement unless Bolivia directly negotiates with the U.S. to reconsider. Sly. United States may reconsider, but will ask for something in return from Bolivia, whether it may be a shift in coca policy or something else. Nice bargaining chip. If Bolivia does not regain this market, it could look to other countries like Venezuela or China, two countries that the U.S. prefers wouldn’t have increased influence in their own backyard.
Proposed Minimum Wage Hike
Finally, President Morales announced that he would like double the Bolivian minimum wage from Bs. 440 (55 dollars) to Bs. 880 (110 dollars). The issue of increasing the minimum wage has its pros and cons, as it will be said that it would cause more unemployment because many businesses cannot afford this raise in salary. However, these ridicously low paid employees would now have more purchasing power and have more money to spend, thus helping the economy. I know in my apartment building in Cochabamba, it would mean that each family would pay $1.50 per month for the salary of the two responsible doormen that work long hours.
Doubling the minimum wage still falls short of the Bs. 1,500 that the Centro Obero Boliviano (COB) claimed that Morales promised them. We'll see if they will strike and cause disruptions because of this.
Posted by eduardo at Marzo 18, 2006 01:36 AM