Diciembre 17, 2005
Predictions
Without a second round of voting, no candidate will reach the desired 50% + 1 outcome. However, many seem to think that MAS will reach a record high for popular vote. Even though they have not come close to crossing into the 40s% in any of the polls, I will go out on a limb and say that MAS will cross that line on Sunday with a figure close to 41-42% The reason I think that this is entirely possible is due to the large numbers of poll responders who say that their choice is “secret”. In my estimation, a large number of these people will vote for MAS, but are afraid to reveal out of fear of what others might think. There is a strong perception that those supporting this party are only the working poor, taxi drivers, bus drivers, campesinos, with very few middle class supporters. God forbid if someone who lives in the Zona Norte of Cochabamba and attends one of the prized private schools would admit to supporting Morales. However, there are more than people will be lead to believe.
A second prediction, MAS will place 2nd in Santa Cruz.
Posted by eduardo at Diciembre 17, 2005 08:15 PM