Diciembre 13, 2005
Inside Information?
Last Sunday, Samuel Doria Medina insinuated that new polls would come out this week, which conveniently would shake up the order of finish. Doria Medina said that he thinks that one of the television channels (he didn't name which one) will release a poll mid-week, which would show Quiroga in first place and that Doria Medina would drop to fourth, with the MNR candidate Michiaki Nagatani in third place. He indicated that in the past, polls have been maninpulated to acheive a desired result. We'll see...
Posted by eduardo at Diciembre 13, 2005 12:38 PM
Comments
People who do poorly in polls regularly tend to use the cliche that the poll is rigged. People who do well in polls tend to use the cliche that the polls were accurate. The accuracy of a poll has nothing to do w/ what someone believes *should* be the outcome, and everything to do w/ the reliability (method, sample size, question wording, etc) of the poll. But if you're a candidate dropping in polls, the best defense is to try to convince people that the polls are manipulated in some way. Perhaps they are. But an allegation doesn't prove anything, it just means "I think I should be doing better; I'm not; therefore the poll is wrong".
But the polls have shown a consistent drop by Doria Medina, and a consistent rise by Nagatani. So yet one more poll showing this trend would merely be consistent w/ all the other previous polls. For whatever that's worth.
Posted by: miguel (ciao!) at Diciembre 13, 2005 02:24 PM