Noviembre 06, 2005
Forty Percent
My original prediction that Evo Morales will receive 40% of the popular vote may be a bit low if one follows past history. Pagina 12 from Argentina published an interview prior to Evo's participation in the festivities in Mar del Plata. One point becomes especially important, the fact that past polls always underestimated MAS' final tally. If that happens again, could it be possible that Evo wins outright?
P12-If MAS does not obtain 50% + 1 and the election needs to be decided by a Congressional vote, could there be an alliance with the right?
EM-Neither of the candidates are proposing a structural change. Doria Medina and Tuto Quiroga want to maintain the economic model. We are banking on winning the 50% + 1, because in the two previous national elections in which we participated, we were always underestimated in the polls. In 1997 we tripled the poll results and in 2002 we finished in 2nd. Now they say we have 38% and if we triple that, we win by a landslide.
Too much can happen in the next six weeks, but no one seems to know if Evo has peaked or is just gaining momentum. No one believes for a minute that he'll triple the 38%, but there may be a record number of blank votes in the December election, which would probably help the front runner.
Posted by eduardo at Noviembre 6, 2005 12:04 AM