« Bolivia in "La Cebolla" | Main | Tough Crowd »

Octubre 30, 2005

The Reaction

The Electoral Court says that there is not enough time to prepare the necessary materials for a December 4th election. Two other Sundays in December are still available and still remain as acceptable dates, although postponing the election an additional 7-14 days could negatively affect the frontrunner. In this case, the favorite is Evo Morales, as most polls have placed Morales in first place ahead of the other two major candidates Tuto Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina.

However, the entire country will wait and see how Evo reacts to the news of this near-certain postponement. He is already spouting off about neoliberal-this and oligarchy-that. If Congress does not decide soon or President Eduardo Rodriguez does not issue his decree, Evo and the self-described “destabilizing forces” in his campaign could take to the streets, causing serious inconveniences for the general public.

Surely that would have a negative effect on those middle class and urban voters, who have conveniently forgotten about his propensity to alternate between democracy and street mobilizations. The fact of the matter is that there are many middle class and urban voters who are strongly leaning towards supporting MAS. Bolivians have a short memory (after all, they allowed a former dictator to run for President and win – Hugo Banzer in 1997), but protests weeks before an election will surely chip away at Evo’s lead in the polls. Maybe that’s what some of the Congressmen are hoping for.