Julio 17, 2005
Evo's Chances
Boz draws attention to the recent Council on Hemispheric Affair's Article titled: A Coca Grower to Lead Bolivia? The analyst argues that Bolivia is on the verge of electing Evo Morales, partly out of his Anti-American views. Q: But, what happens when that candidate is anti-Bolivian as well? A: High disapproval ratings. What else do you call views that jeopardize the incomes and livelihoods of thousands of working poor through the support of blockades and other anti-democratic measures, such as coercion and threats?
I certainly am not against what Morales hopes to reverse: economic and political exclusion, institutional racism and an economic model that has not delivered what had been promised (also the fault of a flawed system that encourages corruption). However, instead of building upon the historic finish in the 2002 election and Congressional victories, he has taken several steps back and alienated such a huge part of the country. His means do not justify his hoped net result, where other means were available to him.
In spite of the high disapproval rates, Morales doesn’t have zero chance of being President as Jim thinks in his entry in Blog from Bolivia:
I think that Evo has about as much chance of becoming President of Bolivia after next December’s elections as I have of being Bush’s pick for the US Supreme Court
His chances of becoming President are not entirely up to him. Likely he will not poll in the top spot and with the emergence of Samuel Doria Medina and the Mayors’ candidate (which we’ll get to later), where he could find himself in third place. But crazier things have happened, as there has been some rumblings of an alliance between the Mayors and Evo, but with the announcement of Rene Joaquino as the candidate for this “Frente Amplio”, Evo will not be their candidate for the elections, as previously thought, and will need their support should they finish behind MAS.
It is highly unlikely that there will be an alliance between all of the actors on the extreme left including Abel Mamani, Oscar Olivera, Jaime Solares and Felipe Quispe. Such a grouping could tally around 30% for Evo/MAS, but due to the distrust among these groups, each are likely to field their own candidate, which would further disperse the vote from the far-left.
Posted by eduardo at Julio 17, 2005 03:08 PM
Comments
I guess the chances aren't zero. I've thought of a few crazy scenarios including:
1) The Santa Crucenos and MAS creating an alliance that would give full autonomy to the East in exchange for Evo's presidency in the West.
2) Several political parties deciding to give the election to Morales for the pure joy of watching him fail once he's in office.
3) An alliance with the center that brings him while incredibly reducing the power of the presidency or maybe even creating a system closer to a parliamentary system.
4) A mass boycott of the election by some group (Santa Crucenos, Goni's friends?) that causes the results to come out weird.
Like I said, crazy scearios, but not any crazier than how Bolivia's political situation has been for the past three years. The one thing I don't see is a majority of Bolivians supporting Morales. He is starting off with too much baggage.
Posted by: boz at Julio 17, 2005 03:53 PM
I enjoyed reading some of your articles. Quite impressive. Hey, check out my website http://verdeluz.blogpost.com I'm a fellow blogger and a friend of the Barrio Mulas/Nutslapper blogger.
Posted by: Don Chu at Julio 18, 2005 07:06 PM