Julio 14, 2005
Another Poll
A poll conducted by the Universidad Franz Tamayo found that Samuel Doria Medina (UN) was the favored choice among the respondants in La Paz and El Alto.
Samuel Doria Medina - 15.2%
Evo Morales - 14.8%
Carlos Mesa - 14.1%
Jorge Quiroga - 13.8%
The main question is why do pollsters continue to include ex-President and ineligible candidate Carlos Mesa in these surveys? It doesn't appear that Congress is willing to change the Constitution to allow him to run. An even better question would be: for which candidate would those Mesa supporters give their vote to? The 14% would be valuable to any of the other three candidates.
Posted by eduardo at Julio 14, 2005 06:04 PM
Comments
Actually, Mesa can run for president. You can't run for re-election, but you can run for election after another person has been president. Mesa is no longer president, Rodriguez is, so Mesa can run. Just like Tuto can, although he was president for a year (had Banzer not died, and Tuto not become president, Tuto would've run in 2002).
Posted by: miguel (ciao!) at Julio 14, 2005 08:17 PM
From what I understand that Mesa was technically elected as VP in 2002 and therefore ineligible to run in December. The Article in the Constitution in question is Article 87.
http://www.bolivia.com/noticias/AutoNoticias/DetalleNoticia27468.asp
"6 ¿Quiénes quedan habilitados para las elecciones generales?
Todos los candidatos que reúnan los requisitos que señala el artículo constitucional.
Sin embargo, no podrán participar Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada ni Carlos Mesa, porque ellos formaron parte del período constitucional que se inició llamándose 2002-2007, pero al aplicarse la reforma y de convocarse a una nueva elección, entonces se acortó a 2002-2006. Por lo tanto, todos los que hubiesen gobernado en este período constitucional están inhabilitados para la elección. No es el caso de quienes estuvieron al mando de la nación en una etapa previa al mencionado período constitucional. Es el caso, por ejemplo, de Jorge Quiroga."
Posted by: eduardo at Julio 14, 2005 10:12 PM
I think they keep including Mesa just for comparison. He has gotten very high numbers in recent polls. These polls reflect a tendency of the electorate and they also show that the people want a candidate who doesn't come from the traditional parties.
It is interesting to think about the possibility of the MNR being doomed or the MIR on the way to extinction. Although, I don't really think so.
What these parties need is internal democratization and enhancement of their representativity. That means a new leadership.
Posted by: Miguel (MABB) at Julio 15, 2005 03:19 AM
OK, I think you're right. I forgot that it ws by constitutional period. So, yes, it looks like Mesa, Goni, and Rodriguez can't run. But using Mesa for comparison is bad, because it bleeds away from the other candidates, and we don't know if it bleeds more from some or others.
Posted by: miguel (ciao!) at Julio 17, 2005 02:32 PM