Mayo 15, 2005
International Intervention
El Deber published an article where it consulted with a group of analysts who stated that this is the worst crisis since the Federal War (1899).
The unnamed analysts said that Bolivia is close to an international intervention. During the October crisis, both Brazil and Argentina appeared willing to mediate. However, they said any future intervention won't be a mediation rather a military intervention similar to what is currently taking place in Haiti.
So who would come to the rescue and prevent a civil war? Brazil? They need Bolivia's fuel. Argentina? Ditto. Chile? That would throw gasoline on the fire. None of the capable neighbors would seem to be playing an objective role in this crisis.
The U.S. already has a strong military presence in Bolivia due to its participation in the Drug War. However, I doubt that the U.S. has any interest in sending in troops to back of the back burner Bolivia.
Posted by eduardo at Mayo 15, 2005 07:09 PM
Comments
I agree. But I also think the most likely is that Bolivia will start to disintegrate, then Argentina/Brazil will intervene to help a defacto Santa Cruz secession. Something, perhaps, like a Kurdish state in pre-war Iraq: Bolivia would be nominally a whole country, but Santa Cruz/Tarija affairs would be autonomous in almost every thing that even remotely counted (and w/ AB preserving the status quo). But that's just a guess, eh?
Posted by: miguel at Mayo 15, 2005 08:34 PM
Bolivia should merge with Peru , Ecuador, Colomia and Venezuela to from a single country to counterweight Brazil.
Posted by: romeo at Marzo 17, 2007 06:43 AM