Marzo 08, 2005
Decisions, Decisions
A vigil is planned for 3:30 p.m. (hora Boliviana) in the Plaza Murillo where Bolivians will ask Congress to reject the resignation of President Carlos Mesa.
It is expected that the Parliment will, at that time, reject the resignation of President Carlos Mesa. This El Deber graphic shows the party breakdown in the Senate and House of Deputies. The leaders of each of the political parties met on Monday to plan their strategies, although some members of Congress will likely split from their party and vote in other ways. Reports indicate that the political parties MIR (Movimiento de la Izquierda Revolucionaria) and NFR (Nueva Fuerza Republicana) will not accept the resignation.
One of the other two parties with a large share of seats, MNR (Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario) will accept the resignation and call for early elections. There are large group of Movimientistas who are still bitter and blame Mesa for the downfall of Goni. However, there are some party members who have already publicly said that they will not vote with their party.
The MAS (Movimiento Al Socialismo) whose leader Evo Morales was publicly castigated by Mesa for his responsibility in paralyzing the country into a state of chaos, faces a critical decision. This decision will likely spell out MAS' political future.
By accepting Mesa's resignation, Morales would be handing the Presidency to Hormando Vaca Diez (MIR - Santa Cruz) or the 2nd in line, Mario Cossio (MNR - Tarija), thus almost guaranteeing a derailing of the process of the Constituent Assembly. Any chance of being invited to the bargaining table (as Mesa has done numerous times) would go down the drain. Evo and his crew are personally being held responsible for the current state of the country.
By rejecting Mesa's resignation, Morales would be, in essence, giving Mesa a vote of confidence. That vote would be a constant reminder that Evo supported Mesa and that he should stop his direct action in the streets and return to the Congress to debate and compromise.
There have been some rumblings that the MAS is scrambling to find some technicalitity that would declare Mesa's resignation invalid, and return it to him without it ever coming to a vote. Evo and the majority of the MAS do not want to have to make a decision.
Groups in Santa Cruz, including Nacion Camba founder, Carlos Dabdoub has also come out in favor of rejecting the resignation. However, they are urging him to restore order and do whatever is necessary to break the blockades.
Some of the blockades in Sucre and Santa Cruz have been dismantling as a sign of a defense of democracy, which leads to one important point in this mess, what happens when Mesa is "ratified" by the Congress and the general public? The blockades in El Alto and in the Chapare will still remain. Even with the majority public mandate, Mesa has vowed not to use force to break blockades or restore access to the major cities.
From the NY Times:
"Mesa has to understand that governments have the right, the legitimate right, to use force," said Eduardo Gamarra, the Bolivian-born director of the Latin America and Caribbean Center at Florida International University in Miami. "You can't just burn down a building or take over a government building because you don't like government policy.
Will he have no other choice?
Posted by eduardo at Marzo 8, 2005 12:01 AM
Comments
The post states the "other two parties" holding many seats will accept the resignation, but then only lists MNR as accepting. MAS and Evo's stance was not clear--are they included in those that will surely accept the resignation? if not, are they the scale that makes the outcome unknown? In the Senate, it appears MNR controls such a large number of seats that if MAS vots for accepting, the resignation will be accepted. Could you clarify the layout of who's votes are known for sure? Your post was very helpful.
Posted by: Marta at Marzo 8, 2005 10:36 AM
Man, what a coverage. If Mesa stays, I think, is likely that some blockades will continue. Also, Evo will not publicly endorse Mesa and It would not be rare that if MAS votes against the resignation, pressure continues on the streets. After all, Evo has no problem on supporting the president on ocasions and denounce him in others.
Posted by: MB at Marzo 8, 2005 10:42 AM
Sorry if that wasn't clear, I corrected my grammatical mistake. I believe the MNR's official stance will be to accept the resignation, although there are some party members who have been a part of Mesa's government when he changed his cabinet.
Yes, I think the ball is clearly in the hands of MAS. Like you said, they have the power to decide his fate. But do they want to be seen voting with the party of Goni and voting to postpone indefinitely the Constituent Assembly?
However, MAS is very divided right now. People like Filemon Escobar, who was expelled from MAS, has publicly supported Mesa.
There is much left to be determined.
Posted by: eduardo at Marzo 8, 2005 10:45 AM