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Enero 21, 2005
What Santa Cruz Wants
Apparently Santa Cruz's main gripe was really not about the increase in fuel prices. After Mesa reversed that decision in regards to diesel, nothing had changed. In fact, the blockades continue, more public buildings are being occupied and a march is planned for today.
The civic leaders have demanded "autonomy". However, this demand is much more abstract and complex, than asking for the cancellation of the Aguas del Illimani contract.
Already the debate on autonomy (and I don't think there is much debate whether greater autonomy is needed for all Departments) is slated for the Constituent Assembly. Unless the civic leaders come up with a definite plan on how to implement autonomy, while accounting for the extra layers of public bureaucracy and keeping it out of play for the politicians to build a higher patronage tower, then Mesa's plan is a rational way to deal with this issue.
The civic leaders do have support for their cause, but the average Cruceño doesn't consider what is involved in granting autonomy. Do they realize that it will be business as usual with politicians dealing out public sector jobs? The only difference is that there will be more jobs to be used as prizes, with more money at stake. The increase in money will make the race for that pie to be much more cutthroat.
In essence, the business leaders want Mesa to resign any which way. They understand that Mesa is committed to the Constituent Assembly and passing a moderate Hydrocarbons Law. That threatens their way of life. I think they want Mesa to resign so that it becomes a West vs. East conflict or an indio vs. white conflict. Clearly Mesa doesn't fit into either category and in a divided country it is easier to push their agenda forward.
Posted by eduardo at Enero 21, 2005 08:47 AM
Comments
I think the main thing is that Santa Cruz, Tarija, and other eastern departments want autnomy BEFORE the constituent assembly. They want a guarantee that, whatever new national constitution is adopted, their key interests will be protected. Essentially a de facto veto over gas/oil policies, among other things. There's fear that a new constitution will nationalize many industries; whereas the eastern business elite (and a large section of its middle & even lower class) favor market economics.
The key problem's that no one knows how the constituent assembly will be elected. If it's a nationwide assembly, the west will outnumber the east just enough to get what it wants (currently, that seems to favor nationalization). W/o the protection of a two chamber assembly (i.e. the senate, which gives greater protection to the east), there's reluctance to wait on key issues to be solved ONLY in the constituent assembly. Remember, Santa Cruz also demanded that the gas referendum be on a department level (hoping their five departments would trump the four western departments).
I think that's the key to understanding their position.
Posted by: Miguel Centellas at Enero 21, 2005 01:43 PM
That's probably the best articulated reasoning that I've heard in a long time. If that's what they are concerned about, then why don't they say that? It's not really about camba/colla or even the increase in fuel prices. I just wish there were more Cruceños, who weren't the elite business leaders, leading the charge.
If they succeed in pushing Mesa out, who will play the role of moderate centrist representing a large portion of Bolivia who have no voice?
Posted by: eduardo at Enero 21, 2005 03:34 PM
I think the problem's that Santa Cruz no longer sees Mesa (if they ever did) representing a "middle" Bolivia. Having peripherally known Mesa for a while, he's a very elitist urban paceño, who holds the very stereotypical view of La Paz old families (such as his) as the important voice of the nation. His reactions to quickly ceding to demands around metropolitan La Paz, and virtually ignoring "interior" demands has angered many. I know people who grumble that Mesa's just president of the paceños.
And I've no idea who a 'moderate' centrist leader could be. But it'd have to be someone who doesn't identify too closely w/ La Paz or Santa Cruz, or who identifies equally w/ both.
Posted by: Miguel Centellas at Enero 21, 2005 04:44 PM
Tuto.
Posted by: eduardo at Enero 23, 2005 11:53 PM