Diciembre 05, 2004
What To Look For
Anything can happen in today’s municipal elections. Reports of fraudulent ballots have been making rounds in Santa Cruz. I’m restricted to news from online newspapers, which have been accused of favoritism towards certain candidates. Even informal polling of Bolivians I have spoken with through IM found that many are still undecided. This indecision and questionable polling could change the results that were predicted.
Evo Morales’ MAS party is looking to make a strong showing in rural areas, although his candidate in Cochabamba could come in first. Even though many admire Gonzalo Lema and think he would be an honest mayor, many won’t vote for him because of the relationship with Evo. MAS, I believe, is the only political party to participate in all 327 municipalities.
It will also be important to see whether the traditional political parties maintain the vote of party loyalists. So many new citizen’s groups have formed, comprised of party members, and most are relying on their fellow party members for their vote. This is the crossroads for MNR, MIR and NFR, whether they remain relevant in local and national politics.
There are indications that the candidates in El Alto and La Paz, Pepe Lucho Paredes and Juan del Granado, respectively, may win outright (50% + 1 of the vote). Both are the incumbent mayors. Paredes, ex-MIR formed his own citizen’s groups and del Granado is the head of La Paz-based party Movimiento Sin Miedo (MSM).
In the other two major cities (Santa Cruz and Cochabamba), the top 3-4 favorites may have to contend with vote dispersal, thus obligating the new city council to elect the mayor. We may not know the results for some time. Some candidates have proposed that all those running should honor the popular vote and ensure that the top vote-getter should be made mayor, even if he/she received 20-something percent. Others have argued that this is anti-democratic.
Posted by eduardo at Diciembre 5, 2004 11:24 AM