Noviembre 03, 2004
The Strongest Political Party
In the upcoming municipal elections, no one is expecting much from the political parties. After the introduction of the new law allowing for agrupaciones ciudadanas (which basically are parties in disguise, but that’s another topic altogether) and indigenous groups to take part in these elections, many wonder whether this election process would mark the end of this group of parties or whether it would be just a bump in the road. A recent poll confirmed that the parties are not doing so hot in the four major alcaldias (La Paz, El Alto, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba), with the exception of one: el Movimiento al Socialsmo (MAS).
Even though many party leaders swear that the MAS is not a political party, it operates and functions as one. But the polling numbers indicate that there exists plenty of support. Many predicted that MAS only really had a realistic shot in Cochabamba (the Department where the party was created). With the choice of Gonzalo Lema, a famous national novelist and invited guest, many thought his broad appeal would help catapult MAS to battle for the top spot. In the four major cities, MAS has polled no lower than third in any of the alcaldias.
Surprisingly, the MAS candidate in Santa Cruz, Osvaldo Peredo is in 2nd place and in striking distance of ex-mayor Roberto Fernandez. (Fernandez had to resign the mayorship in order to run for reelection). This is the most interesting result, as Peredo is polling at 15% of the vote, in comparison to Fernandez’ 22%. In a city, supposedly hostile to Evo Morales and MAS, perhaps there are voices that are not being represented by the current political leaders and ignored by the Comite Civico and other business groups.
Another city where the MAS presented a noteworthy candidate was in El Alto. The big news was that MAS had recruited a priest, Wilson Soria, who had been a public figure during the October crisis last year. However, he is far behind from ex-mayor Jose Luis “Pepe Lucho” Paredes. In La Paz, MAS is running a distant second to ex-mayor Juan del Granado.
And in the city where MAS was expected to present its strongest showing, Cochabamba, Gonzalo Lema is in a virtual deadlocked three-way tie for first with former mayor (although not the incumbent), Gonzalo Terceros. In my opinion, their campaign so far has not been as effective as it could have been, which I will address in the future.
Even if the MAS does not turn things around and make up ground in La Paz and El Alto, where things look bleak, their 2nd place finish above 10% would guarantee them at least one concejeal (councilmember) in these major cities, thus, solidifying their rise within the democratic system. Even though some parties such a UCS in Cochabamba, MIR in La Paz, and especially MSM (many forget that they are a political party), enjoy relative success in one of the four major cities, only MAS has shown consistent and success in all 4 of Bolivia’s major cities.
Top Three Candidates in the Four Major Bolivian Cities:
La Paz
Juan del Granado (MSM) – 41%
Pablo Ramos (MAS) – 15%
Jaime Paz Pereira (MIR) – 7%
El Alto
Jose Luis Paredes (PP)* – 70%
Wilson Soria (MAS) – 10%
Roberto de la Cruz (M17)* – 2%
Santa Cruz
Roberto Fernandez (ASXX1)* – 22%
Osvaldo Peredo (MAS) – 17%
Percy Fernandez (FAJT)* -- 12%
Cochabamba
Gonzalo Terceros (CIU)* – 18%
Edwin Mallon (UCS) – 18%
Gonzalo Lema (MAS) – 16%
* agrupacion ciudadana
Posted by eduardo at Noviembre 3, 2004 12:06 PM
Comments
Could you give me a quick summary of the MSM, PP, ASXX1, and the CIU?
So these citizen groups resemble the MAS in ideology? If so, does not hte presence of multiple center-left groups put the left in danger?
Posted by: Luis at Noviembre 17, 2004 12:31 PM