Octubre 15, 2004
Early Take on Cochabamba Race
Campaign time for the 320+ mayoral races across the country only lasts two months. Is that enough time to properly analyze the proposals and candidates? Many seem to think that all that matters in these races is name recognition.
The Unidad Nacional (UN) is banking on the name recognition and positive vibe of comedian Jenny Serrano. The citizen´s group Ciudadanos Unidos (CU) is placing its bets with former Wilstermann President and current Bolivian Fútbol League President Mauricio "Patato" Mendez. Both are running as suplentes correction:(alternates, for the lack of a better word), that is, if the lead candidates gets enough votes, then they will serve as councilmember.
Early polling indicates (although the news were not clear on who did the polling) that "Chaly" Terceros (CU) is leading the race, followed by Gonzalo Lema (MAS).
It bothers me that Terceros, who was one of the 6 mayors in 5 years held by NFR, has such a strong following. It is said that Terceros was removed as Mayor by NFR chief Manfred Reyes Villa, as in the words of my uncle, "like a dog." Many speculate that Terceros formed his own citizen´s group to jockey for position and return to NFR in a much higher and more powerful capacity. With the stronghold that NFR has had in Cochabamba, it is tough to find anyone that has not been with that party in some aspect or another. Many want to deny their association and say that they were merely an "invited guest".
I am following closely the campaigns of Gonzalo Lema (MAS), who is not a militante, a card-carrying registered member of that party. Much like the participation of current President Carlos Mesa, who was not a militante of MNR in 2002. Yet it still weighs on me, that the MAS is not following its own rise through democracy. In theory, candidates should come from within their own ranks and be nominated internally. However, in order to receive the support from the middle-class, I am sure Evo´s hand-picked candidate fits the bill of having name recognition and broader appeal.
That is where my interest in the UN´s candidate Oscar Bakir comes in. Supposedly, although I have no way of confirming this, that all of the UN´s candidates were selected through the internal nomination process. This democratic way of selecting candidates seems to be more in line with what Bolivia needs, instead of the top-down politics of the traditional parties.
Yet, I am still weary of Bakir, because of his past association with NFR.
Many of my middle-class cousins are leaning towards Lema, and they specify that they will vote for Lema, and not necessarily MAS. This line of reasoning mirrors what many did in the 2002 Presidential election, when I know of people who voted for Goni, because of Mesa, and not for MNR.
Posted by eduardo at Octubre 15, 2004 05:55 PM
Comments
Are they running as suplentes? Or lower on in the lists? These are different things.
Posted by: Miguel Centellas at Octubre 15, 2004 06:54 PM
Oh, great recap on the Cocha election, BTW. I'm having a really difficult time getting an understandable candidate listing, and CNE response rate these days is sloooow. Thanks a million.
Posted by: Miguel Centellas at Octubre 15, 2004 07:00 PM
Yes, you are absolutely right, suplente is different than "2nd on the list" ( I am not sure what the correct term is), but each party/group lists the top candidate and then a list of possible councilmembers, which will be used when the percentage of vote is distributed.
Serrano is 2nd on the list, and not suplente, as I incorrectly stated.
Today´s Los Tiempos lists all candidates and all suplentes for every municipality in Cochabamba. The insert is 16 pages long. They could have made up names for all I know.
Posted by: eduardo at Octubre 16, 2004 02:19 PM