Evo Morales seems to be promising the moon during this election season. In reality, some think Morales isn’t as radical as his rhetoric. He needs to secure the campesino vote and hope that Felipe Quispe’s MIP does not steal support from the Altiplano and some areas of El Alto. But his campaign promises, which will not be easy to implement with a strong opposition in Congress (assuming he wins the Presidency, which is far from certain), may be a bigger headache than first realized. A recent Financial Times article sees the pressure from the social movements (such as Cochabamba activist Oscar Olivera) as being a key actor in the day after the inauguration.
But ultimately, a Morales administration could be brought down by failing to satisfy its supporters. Asked how long the social movements would grant Mr Morales to nationalise the gas industry, Mr Olivera is unequivocal: “We will give him one day.”
We have to remember that Morales originally supported a 50-50% split on the controversial hydrocarbons issue, but politically it was in his best interests to push for full nationalization. I imagine that his team of advisors prefer the moderate and centrist model, but the overwhelming pressure from the radical left is too much to ignore.