When President Carlos Mesa announced on March 6 that he was submitting his letter of resignation to Congress, it was such a shock. However, as time went on it became crystal clear that the resignation would be rejected by Congress. It was, as some analysts have said, a shrewd political move with hopes of getting more backing for his power-starved government.
Could these latest developments have a similar feel? Evo has once again labeled this most recent announcement as “blackmail”. This is beginning to appear as another way within democratic institutions to find a way out of the crisis.
It wouldn’t surprise me that if and when Congress passes the laws allowing for early elections, that they also allow Mesa to run in the August election.
Not only would he have a good chance of winning (perhaps even outright with 50% + 1), but he would also begin his new term with an entirely new Congress. There would also be a good chance that Evo’s all-time low popularity would net him less votes than he acheived in 2002. Even Tuto Quiroga would have to change his plans, as he expected to be the frontrunner in 2007.
It’s far from smooth sailing from until the possible early elections six months from now.